New week down for global share markets, characterized by A high volatilityfinding a little relief only after the suspension of 90 days by Donald Trump of the so -called “mutual” duties initially imposed on all the commercial partners of the United States on the occasion of the “day of liberation”. At the same time, the growing tensions with China caused a further increase in the returns of the titles of the US Treeasury and the EUR/USD gearbox, at most in three years.
It must also be considered that the 90 -day suspension is not definitivesince countries have yet to pay a 10% duty on most exports and the duties of 25% on cars, steel, aluminum and on most goods from Canada and Mexico remain in force. In addition, Trump increased the duties on China at 145% after increased duties on all US goods to 125%.
Therefore, the commercial war is far from over and the expectations are for a slowdown in global growth. “I think we are very close, if not in recession,” said the CEO of Blackrock, Larry Finkin an interview with the CNBC, referring to the American economy. “I think we will assist, in general, to a slowdown until there is no greater certainty – he added – and now we have 90 days of reciprocity on the duties, which means a longer and higher uncertainty”.
Today’s session
In the European scholar scenery it was under pressure Frankfurtwho accused a drop of 0.92%, a positive balance for Londonwho boasted a progress of 0.64%, and hesitated Pariswho lost 0.30%.
Exchanges down for the Milan stock exchangewhich accuses a drop of 0.73% on the FTSE MIB; On the same line, the FTSE Italia All-Share closes in reverse, which slips to 36,120 points. The Ftse Italia Mid Cap (-0.44%) is slightly reduced; With analogous direction, in fractional decline the Ftse Italia Star (-0.36%).
At the top of the ranking of Most important titles in Milanwe find stmicroelectronics (+3.90%), Diasorin (+3.23%), Hera (+1.99%) and recovered (+1.70%). The strongest sales, on the other hand, hit Stellantis, which finished the counterattacks at -3.81%. Generali Insurance slips, with a clear disadvantage of 3.50%. In Rosso Azimut, which highlights a decisive reduction of 1.90%. The negative performance of Ferrari stands out, which drops by 1.88%.
The US Macro data
Contrary to political news, few macroeconomic data have been published this week. The only relevant data was theUS inflation of Marchwhich surprised downwards, descending at 2.4% A/A (against expected for 2.5% a/a) from 2.8% a/a. Energy prices contributed negatively, while food inflation has accelerated. On the core price front, inflation dropped to 2.8% a/a (against expected 3.0% a/a) from 3.1% a/aa due to the lower inflation of services. The data were collected before the announcements on the duties.
Furthermore, today it emerged that i Production prices American surprised downwards, with variations of -0.4% m/m (from +0.1% previous) and +2.7% A/A (from +3.2%) to the headline and -0.1% m/m size (from +0.1%) and +3.3% A/A (from +3.5%) to the core size; The monthly decline, the major from October 2023, has been guided by energy, but also different categories that fall within the PCE (inflation measurement preferred by the Fed) have provided cooling signals.
The next few weeks
In the next two weeks, theattention will be paid to the decision on rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Chinese Popular Bank (PBOC), the PMI report of April and to retail sales in the United States.
Analysts provide that the ECB It will cut the interest rates of 25 basis points on April 17, bringing the rate on deposits to 2.25%, that the declaration repeats “monetary policy is becoming significantly less restrictive” and that Lagarde highlights the risks downward for growth, refraining from providing clear indications on future decisions on rates. China could lower the reference rate in the following week to Easter to stimulate the economy in view of the increases in the duties.
