In the last few days, the attention of the markets has been focused on the Middle East. The conflict that broke out Between Israel and Iran and which also saw the directly involved States United has made fear of interruptions in energy supplies, pushing many analysts to predict a strong rise in prices of oil and gas. Their forecasts were also reported by Quifinance And from the most prestigious international newspapers that deal with economic issues.
Today, in response, despite the scenarios still surrounded by uncertainty, the prices remained under check. Did the experts be wrong? And did we make a mistake, consequently, to bring their words back? This is not the case. We try to understand what is going on and what awaits us in the near future.
No crises in the Strait of Hormuz
On June 24, after 12 days of escalation, a cease-fire Between Israel and Iran, mediated by Qatar and the United States – who tried to make Tehran think with the weight of the bombs on the (presumed) nuclear sites.
The previous days had been marked by attacks aimed at military and scientific infrastructures, with missile launches and, in response, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz – one of the strategic routes for energy exports.
For a few hours, the hypothesis of a closure of the Strait made the worst fear. But the situation stabilized before degenerating, actually proving to be a great bluff.
Prices on the rise for a few hours
In the most critical moments of the conflict, the price of Greggio Brent had risen up to 76 dollars a barrel. A short blaze, given that since June 25, with the start of the ceased, the prices returned below 70 dollars.
Even more clear the decline on European gas, which has lost over 10% In a few days. The contained reaction of the energy markets surprised many, but the reasons are precise.
The reasons for the “non-rialzo”
We can identify 4 reasons why the crisis has returned quickly:
- It was a real war lightning Without the closure of the Hormuz Strait or export blocks;
- The investors They are now used to managing geopolitical risk after duties threats, the war in Ukraine (and even before the other conflicts in the Middle East) and Covid’s pandemic and hardly the markets are influenced by bad news;
- theOPEC+ The production has stable and the demand remains weak in Asia, while the USA report high raw supplies;
- The European gas market is much more diversified Compared to the past after the crisis with Russia, and the supplies no longer pass only from regions potentially involved by the ongoing conflicts.
How the prices really work
The price of oil and gas is formed on global financial markets where, as for actions, expectations, signals and concrete numbers count.
When a geopolitical crisis breaks out, the operators react quickly by acquiring future in fear that the offer can decrease, thus making the prices rise. But if in the following days the crisis proves to be limited, or if the real data – such as stocks, naval flows and production – do not confirm the alarm, the race stops.
The traders thus begin to sell and Prices drop again.
This is exactly what happened this time: the threat of blocks did not materialize and fundamental (The data that determine the real value of energy assets, so to speak) have remained weak.
In addition, those who invest in energy today know that OPEC+, the US or other large producers can intervene to compensate for any shortcomings. This effect swab Limit the peaks and reduce volatility.
Do prices lower?
Brent oscillates between 67 and 69 dollars per barrel. The gas has returned to the levels of the month.
Even the prices of petrol and diesel have not undergone surge: in the United States the increase in fuels was contained (about 20 cents per gallon) and in Europe there is even a slight descent in the coming weeks.
But The truce is fragile. And analysts, once again, launch caution invitations. Possible new attacks or declarations belligerent they could rekindle tensions.
The next moves of OPEC+are also to be monitored, which could intervene on the production in the event of excess offer – swelling the question and thus tracing the prices.
