“It is a story that repeats itself and, as more attending, happens with the ‘change of routes’ in the Oil & Gas sector, also in international trade more generally, on the threshold of a global war, you notice the need for alternative marketsup to that moment neglected, only when the main ones are suddenly disappeared also for reasons independent of their will. ” Nunzio Bevilacqua Business jurist and international economy expert regarding alternatives and possible countermeasures to the heavy duties which, presumably, will be imposed by the United States since the beginning of August of this year.
The scenario
European Union and the United States starts at final rush of the extensive negotiation on duties It currently stops at the single rate at 15%. But among the nodes of the intended, the sectoral exemptions, the unpredictability of the American interlocutor and the growing irritation of some European capitals still include. Washington’s will to keep the Takes on steel and aluminum at 50% It is a sore point for Brussels. The lowering of the Rate from 27.5% to 15% to European cars does not have the green light of Donald Trump. The sectoral exemptions, from alcohol to agricultural products, from Air Force to medical devices, remain another delicate point of the negotiation that is evolving following the Japan model. Meanwhile in Brussels, in the commercial barriers committee, the representatives of the 27 have given A “large majority” the green light to the single list of counterdat That the EU, in the event of ‘No Deal’, will trigger from 7 August. The 93 billion package would not come into force in its entirety. The first 21 billion tranche, developed against steel and aluminum would take place in August (and who knows that it does not happen even in the event of a deal) while the second part of mutual counter -fuss would be operational on September 7 and 7th next February, in compliance with the rules of the WTO.
EU strategy
“A prudent management of international trade would impose, primarily one greater diversification of the markets already in ‘time of peace’ and of shy away from the ‘sirens’ Of those who, alone, not only absorb a large part of our production but, even worse, it ‘oriented’ to their specific needs creating a sort of ‘indirect dependence’ for objective difficulties of conversion in a short time “.
“Today that, for the European Union, the problem is already at the doors, – continues the expert – it is necessary to enter the logic that To better manage this Risiko you should actat the same time, with a policy of short -term On the one hand and a road map of medium-long period on the other; Aggling, with all the consequences of the case – including hypothesis of recession and inflation – to the concrete possibility, in the short, of the use of the ‘EU’s’ anticoerous measures’ and at the same time contracting with groups or’ economic areas’ that have a critical mass, largely compensatory of the USA, and a relative negotiating speed already in the medium term “.
The potential of the Asean market
“The first, e less critical ‘politically’table option for the EU – explains Bevilacqua – is represented by the ‘potentially performing’ and again, relatively, not very valued ASEAN MARKET -Association of Nations of Southeast Asia-Strategic Region capable of ‘to do business’ with an extremely large basket And more credible economic bet of medium-long term not only from a commercial but also geopolitical point of view. Wishing us on the one hand that any antique measures – to be used for a strictly limited and inductive time to a time Return to diplomacy as a ‘powerful antibiotic’ – do not end up attacking the ‘patient’s body’ after annihilating the ‘virus’, the Asean countries erroneously erroneously ‘marginalized’ – also due to divergent interests with China and the United States – and underestimated compared to the great and best -known players, could find, in this precise historical moment, a ‘complementarity of needs’ compared to the EU And, finally, forms of sustainable development with creation, moreover, of qualified labor for a social development “.
The variables of a “perfect storm”
“No ingredient could have transformed the ‘muscle struggle’between the USA and the EU, in one ‘Perfect Storm’ Like a concomitant and persistent devaluation of the dollar, which – concludes Bevilacqua – dilates even more the ‘delta’ of the European competitive disadvantage, and a non -passable example of an example of an agreement on a Japanese model “.
