The week that closes saw They return beatdue to the renewed geopolitical tensionsin particular on the possibility of a war of the USA in Iran. Hypothesis for now put in stand-by by Trump. At the same time, the prudence revealed by Federal Reserve about a possible cut of interest rates has limited the rise of the precious metal, which was unable to update the previous historical records. But what is expected for the gold market?
Expected quotations on up to $ 4,000
For analysts of Union Bancaire Privee (UBP) The precious metal could arrive at least to 4,000 dollars the ounce within the proseth year. “We have a very constructive position on gold, which should rise to about 4,000 dollars the ounce in 2026,” he explains Peter KinsellaUBP’s Global Head of Forex Stratstratey.
The forecasts of an increase in prices reflect Several factors:
- Higher inflationary tendencies in post-placing
- Robust question from central banks
- High geopolitical risks
- Growing concerns about the debt profile of developed markets
- Low gold evaluations compared to total global wealth
- Potential monetary reorganization and dollar depreciation
Gold rather than doubled since 2020
From 2020, i gold prices they are more than doubleda consequence of the highest levels of thePost-Pandemic inflation due to changes in the supply chain and irrigation of work markets all over the world.
Also the purchases of physical gold by the central banks They contributed significantly to the increase in the price of yellow metal, especially after the start of the war between Ukraine and Russia in 2022. The World Gold Council believes that i prices are at least 15% higher due to the demand of central banks. “We believe that central banks will continue to buy significant quantities of gold in the next decade, looking for alternative assets for their currency reserves,” explains the UBP analyst.
A new phase and a bulky US debt
Events in the Middle East and Ukraine show that the world has entered a completely new geopolitical phaseas evidenced by the gradual withdrawal of the United States from their role as world gendarme. This means that we can expect increasingly frequent conflictswith consequent Risks upon gold.
The “Big Beautiful Bill” of President Trump led to a Increase in returns on US debtwhich means that the markets now ask for one extra compensation for the purchase and possession of US bonds. The aggressive deficit expenditure will maintain high inflation, which is very positive for gold prices. We note that the debt/GDP ratio of the developed markets is incredibly high, and this makes gold an asset increasingly interesting from the point of view of risk diversification.
Finally, any move towards a monetary reorganization – like the famous agreements of the Plaza of 1985 – it will entail Significant risks to the gold for gold. We believe that the dollar will probably continue its recent depreciation trend, which should increase the risks to the rise for yellow metal.
“The Holy secular bullish market is destined to continue In the coming years and is a good time to invest in gold “, concludes Kinsella, based on these factors that support the increase in metal prices.
