With 1,412 billion masses at 2026, Italian private banking is confirmed Un expanding sector, With an expected increase of 6.6% average annual in the next two years (more than tripling +1.8% of other operators): the Italian private Banking (AIPB) association presented the report “Private Banking in Italy: forecast At 2026 “which, in the first part made together with Prometheia, processes the two -year forecasts on the performance of the industry, while in the second it focuses on the expectations of the private managers of the associated institutes.
Private Banking accelerates
In commenting on the report, the AIPB president, Andrea Ragaini, He highlighted: “The forecasts for 2026 confirm the growing weight and the role of private banking in the investment choices of Italian families. A growth path that is based on professional advice and centrality of private banker. The industry, today, is an even more relevant objective, to increase the value of the assets under management over time, guiding the choices of customers within a constantly evolving context “.
The macroeconomic and financial scenario
Despite a slowdown in global economic growth, from the EMERGON reportor signs of stability, in which the US will show a more positive dynamic between 2024 and 2026 (respectively by +2.6%, +1.5%and +2.1%), while the Italian GDP is seen growing between 0 , 8%, in 2024 and 2025, and 0.7% in 2026, and that of the Eurozone between 0.7% and 1.1%. The prospects of recession are in fact moved away from the drop in inflation and the conditions of the labor market.
The monetary policy ofand central banksreversed in the course 2024, opens the way to further expansive measures from here to the first semester 2025; and the lowering of the ECB rates makes it possible to a scenario of “Soft Landing” for the Italian and eurozone economy.
In our country, the debt/GDP ratio is expected to increase following the effects of public bonuses, which will lead to an increased risk on public securities, with the spread BTP-Bund expected to grow up to about 185pb within the next year.
Moving on to the equity marketsthe positive dynamic is expected, in the thing since the beginning of the year, continues during the next two years, with average annual returns expected around 7-8%. In the current year the return of inflation It has translated into a recovery of purchasing power, with a recovery of the available income of families (+3.0%) which, in the next two years, instead, it is expected to have a dynamic less than 1%. Consumption, very weak in 2024 (+0.1%), are seen slightly resumed in the two-year period 2025-2026. Nonetheless, the savings rate will remain on low levels (around 8.5%), in a context of growth of moderate GDP. It also follows that the new flows invested in financial assets in the three-year period ’24 -26 were seen to drop to 210 billion euros (there were 240 billion in the previous three years).
In the last two years (’23 -’24) the positive components of savings and financial markets have contributed to an increase in the investable financial wealth of Italian families, especially through the recovery of markets (+3.4%), but also thanks to new positive flows (+1.7%). In the next two years (’25 -’26) this trend is expected to continue, expanding the investable financial wealth of Italians from 3,689 to almost 4,000 billion. The contribution will be mainly from flows (+1.9%) and a positive trend of the markets (+1.5%).
Evolution of investment preferences
By the investigation conducted by AIPB Among the leaders of the sector, a growing interest in long -term investments is expected (such as i Private Markets; 22% of preferences). In second place, despite the strong decline (from 41 to 22%) investments to guaranteed capital. In substantial growth, insurance solutions for tax optimization (from 3 to 9%), while the propensity is confirmed to maintain a part of liquidity for precautionary purposes (13%).
The asset class envisaged grow more are those related to alternative strategies (such as private equity, infrastructure, real summer; for almost 80% of respondents) and the shareholder (over 70%). On the obligation, the expectations are more warm (for more than half it will remain stable or decreases), while for 54% of the leaders Private lIt will decrease to liquidity. Moving on to investment products, the expectations
towards better performances go to life and patrimonial management policies (62%), followed by the funds ESG (54%). Government bonds and deposits are seen decreased for 38%.