The markets send the month of June in the attic showing a certain resilience, in spite of the jolts that have undermined the trust of the investors since the beginning of April. An announced cataclysm that did not materialize. THE Conflicts in the Middle Eastwhich have always represented a significant risk indicator for financial markets, have obtained one contained reaction of the markets, grasping many investors by surprise.
And if the returns of the ETF on raw materialsin the second half of June, recorded a temporary peak linked to the ascent of oil prices, the trend of the prices of Global ETFs on actions and bonds have not offered signals appreciable that something relevant was happening. Also the American dollarusually considered a good refuge in the crisis phases, has continued to weaken.
This is what emerges from an analysis of Richard FlaxChief Investment Officer of Moneyfarmaccording to which what has been seen is one calm “apparent” and recommends keeping prudence In investments.
Short -led geopolitical impact
The reaction overall attenuated by the markets, therefore, could be partially traced back to conviction that the impact of geopolitics be usually modest and short -lived. Specifically, then, despite the level of instability in the region remains high, the conflict between Israel and Iran It seems to have partially cooled and, if the truce should hold, the consequences in economic terms they could be limited.
A decisive role The growing could also have played it Energy independence of the United States: thanks to the increase in domestic oil production in recent years, in fact, the US, unlike other countries such as China, could be less affected by the rise in oil prices triggered by the closure of the Hormuz Strait.
More attention to the commerce and profit front
Attention markets in the last few days has also aimed at the progress of the Commercial negotiations Between the United States and Chinawho have reached an agreement on the exports of Terre Rare, an essential element to feed the rise of new technologies and investments in artificial intelligence.
In the aftermath of the Liberation Day, several analysts had Revised the estimates on profits of many companies in the Tech sector, providing a slowdown in growth, but in the light of the latest developments it is possible that i Results of the second quarter they reveal themselves more solid than expectations.
On the macroeconomic front, the data on theinflation in the United States For the month of May they indicate a dynamic content: for the moment the rates do not seem to have yet caused significant effects on consumer prices, leaving the Possibility that Fed can reduce interest rates more than previously estimated. Two members of the FOMC have already declared that they were favorable to a cut of the rates during the next July meeting.
Maintain prudence on investments
The wallets seem to have After the hard test of June And the second quarter seems to be in the process of closing in the name of resilience of markets, despite the uncertainties on global trade and international tensions.
Considering that the “ceased the fire” in the Middle East may not last and that the effects of the growth and inflation duties may emerge later, the MoneyFarm analyst still recommends that you maintain a prudent approach: a clear floor, built for the long term, remains the best compass for investors.
