The turbulence of the last five years – pandemic, geopolitical tensions and commercial wars – seem to indicate that in the future The cost of living will be significantly higher compared to today. Analyzing the historic Istat series, Moneyfarm has calculated that Prices in 2050 Over half of them could have grown compared to those of 2024. In fact, considering that in the last twenty -five years the average inflation has certified around 1.9% and that this value is substantially superimposed on the 2% target established by the ECB, through the composed capitalization there would be an overall increase in the cost of the life of the +64%.
The account would change, and for the worse, if the perspective was expanded and took the average inflation as reference from 1948 to today, equal to +5.2% on an annual basis: In this case, In 2050 the caravan would touch the +255% compared to 2024.
Carovita: in 2050 + 255% compared to 2024
Based on these scenarios, a simple one cup of coffee at the bar worth 1.20 euros It could cost between 1.97 and 4.26 euros in 2050, only due to the effect of inflation. By applying the same logic, in the first case, or considering an increase of +64% of the cost of living, the average expense of an Italian family would pass by the current 2,128 euros for 3,491 euros per monthwith a total increase of 16,356 euros per year. In the second case, taking as a reference an increase of +5.2% of the cost of living, the same monthly average expenditure would touch the 7,560 euros, with a delta of over 65,000 euros on an annual basis.
Of course, it should be remembered that the general trend of prices over time is characterized by a high variability: Between 1973 and 1984, for example, inflation grew by more than 10%on an annual basis, not to mention the records touched in 1980 (+21.1%), in 1974 (+19.4%) and in 1981 (+18.7%). For this reason, taking as a benchmark of the “partial” averages is an exercise that must be done with caution, even if what is clear is certainly the trend of the cost of living to increase over time, as evidenced by the fact that, in just five of the last 77 years, a negative inflation has been recorded, the last time in 2020 (-0.3%).
The estimate of Moneyfarm
Price growth can therefore be considered as a fact, which savers can manage but not eliminate.
Among the most protected subjects against the increase in inflation are i Pensioners: To date, for pension checks up to 2,394 euros gross – that is, up to four times the minimum treatment – the annual revaluation is 100%. For the higher amounts, the percentage drops to 90% (between four and five times the minimum treatment) and 75% (over five, starting from 2,993 euros gross per month).
For i workersOn the other hand, the adaptation of the salaries to inflation is not guaranteed and the data collected are conflicting: if, on the one hand, the INAPP ratio shows an increase in royal wages of 1% between 1991 and 2023, on the other, a study by the international work organization indicates that, unlike most of the G20 countries, Italy stands out for a negative wage dynamic in the long run, with a drop of 8.1% in terms of purchase power in terms of purchasing power in terms of purchasing power. 2008 and 2024.
It is also important to point out how perceived inflation can also be significantly from the average inflation used as a repaling parameter: in the event that the first exceeds the latter, the real purchasing power is reduced, especially penalizing the weaker categories of consumers, such as pensioners, who, which, given the advanced age, They enjoy a limited ability to integrate their sources of income and are more exposed to the increases in essential goods such as drugs or users.
To fight caravan and try to compensateat least in part, the increase in prices, a possibility is to invest your savings: according to the latest Ist datat, the Italians manage to set aside 9% of their revenues, which, considering a gross remuneration of 37.302 euros per year per worker, equal to about 2,000 euros net for thirteen months, translates into 2,340 euros saved every year. Money that, left to stop on the current account, would inevitably be exposed to the erosive action of inflation, so much so that, of the 2,340 euros put aside in 2000 and then filed in the bank for twenty -five years, today there would be only about 1,450 euros in terms of purchasing power, with a certain loss of -38%. If, however, the same figure had been invested in a European government bond line, inflation would have been compensated and a further +9%would have been obtained; With the investment in equity markets, however, in addition to the recovery of inflation, the purchasing power would have doubled (+106%).
The scenarios
“Even if the inflation should remain around 2%, the target level established by the ECB, In 2050 prices could grow by more than half compared to 2024. MThe history teaches that periods with much higher inflation are not at all rare: between the seventies and eighties, Italy has experienced phases with annual increases with double -digit and, more recently, the +8.1% recorded in 2022 recalled levels that have not been seen since 1986. In an era marked by uncertainty and volatility like the one we are crossing, the growth of prices acts as an invisible tax. On our savings and the investment it becomes the obligatory way for those who want to keep their purchasing power, a form of financial self -defense with which to protect their capital and their life objectives. Of course, the investment in the financial markets is not without unknowns and everyone, depending on the moment in which he acts, will face different dynamics, but the most underestimated risk is precisely that of not doing anything and seeing the result of his work to devalue over time “,
underlines Davide Cominardi, Investment Consultant Manager of Moneyfarm of Moneyfarm.
