The US-EU agreement does not like many, but there seems to be no alternative. The extra-EU foreign trade data, published by Istat, confirm it. In June 2025 the commercial exchange with non-EU27 countries increased, but exports decreased in the second quarter.
While purchases from the United States (+45.7 %) and China (+25.8 %) increase, instead, exchanges with other partners, including OPEC countries (-20.6 %) and the United Kingdom (–12.9 %) decrease. In more concrete numbers, as in 2024 so also in 2025 the EU exports less than it matters from commercial partners. China is one of these, but to the disadvantage of Europe.
Between China and the EU there is commercial imbalance
On July 24 Ursula von der Leyen, just before the agreement with Trump, flew to China and was welcomed without too many ceremonies. A test, even before Istat data and declarations, of an imbalance of forces that is also of a commercial type. On the occasion of the EU-Cina summit, the President of the EU Commission said that there is a growing imbalance due to the “number of commercial distortions and barriers to access to the market”.
Not a welcoming partner, China, which in this guise does not interpret the alternative to the US duties, but is quite hostile. Von der Leyen has declared that Europe “maintains its market open to Chinese products” and that this reflects the commitment to a trade based on rules. However, he added that this opening is not supported by China and the test would be in the EU’s commercial deficit, doubled in the last decade.
Is Europe looking for an alternative?
The handshake with Trump leaves no doubt that Europe has bent on the will of the US president. Many disadvantages and few the countries that will gain. The agreement also says more, that is, that it could not be done differently. Is there another market?
The answer comes from the data of the extra-EU foreign trade in June 2025, published by Istat at the end of the negotiations on the duties. 2025 sees the EU increase exports on a monthly basis, especially on:
- capital goods (+13.1 %) as the means of maritime navigation;
- energy sales (+19.7 %);
- intermediate goods (+5.2 %);
- in consumer goods not durable (+1.8 %).
On the other hand, exports of durable consumer goods (-5.4 %) such as vehicles, electronics and appliances are reduced. In the second quarter 2025 exports decreases in all sectors, up to -15.2 % for energy.
Swinging data, which tell an extra-EU export growth on an annual basis of 4.7 %, but concentrated towards some markets: Switzerland (+18.4 %), the United States (+10.3 %) and the United Kingdom (+8.1 %). Instead, it drops to Türkiye (-13.6 %), Mercosur countries (–6.1 %) and China (–4.0 %).
We buy more than we sell
The dynamic is this: we buy more than we sell. With the duties the situation can only accentuate itself. It is no coincidence that imports from the United States grew by 45.7 %, from China of 25.8 %and from the Mercosur countries of 23.8 %. They only decrease against Opec, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.
In this context, alternative markets to the United States does not emerge: no longer Russia, with which the relationships are now cold, nor China, which is still silently being silent before investigating the ties. Meanwhile, the EU continues to buy 304.5 billion euros from China, while exports to Beijing amount to 213.3 billion (Eurostat 2024 data). That the friendship between the two powers can be speeded up and try to stem the most serious impacts of the US duties? It’s all to see.
