The Credit risk of Impresand, that is, the probability of not being able to repay the debts (deteriorated credits) and end up default, has fallen to the minimum from the pandemic periodreaching in March at 5.3%the lowest figure from December 2000. It is as much as calculated from Cerved rating agencythe Italian rating agency specialized in the creditworthiness of companies and in the measurement of ESG performance.
But there is little to be quiet, because they renew them tensions on the trade front and the Wars in progress They risk putting exporting companies under pressure, with negative reflections on liquidity and their ability to repay debts.
A 2024 favorable for credit merit
During 2024 the share of companies that have improved their position has increased: 17% of Creenz updatesI was classified “In improvement” against 8% of the previous year. The Rating confirmations credit (the 78% against 69% previous), thanks also to the lower cost of money and greater health of the budgets of companies.
Only temporary relief: three possible scenarios
In the next 12 months, However, a worsening of the financial situation of companies, which would bring the probability of the average default at 5.5% In the scenario deemed more likely, a fact that would not still reach the levels of December 2023 (6.2%), the highest of the last 10 years. The hypothesis was formulated with respect to a scenario in which protectionist and persistent policies international tensions do not exist (US duties to EU near 10% in the next 12 months) and in which the expense attributable to the PNRR grows.
The Two other scenarios outlined by Cerved are less likely but possible. In that worse The average default risk in Italy would reach the 6.5%, the highest level ever recordedin the face of a series of worsening hypotheses: prolonged global commercial war, which causes a recession both in the United States and in the EU; unexpectedment of the conflict in Ukraine with consequent ascent of energy and inflation prices and a stiffening of monetary policy; PNRR and REARM EU only partial implementation.
In a more scenario optimisticInv4ece, the probability of default would go down to 5.1%, Thanks to the abandonment of the hard line uses on the duties and the stipulation of a lasting or peace respite between Russia and Ukraine, with consequent resumption of the trust of markets and economic operators, a decline in inflation and interest rates.
The impact for Italian companies
The impact onItalyin reality, is mitigated by a DLower Ipendenza of some sectors from exports. For example, the sector tertiarywhich represents over 73% of the Italian economy, undergoing indirect and minor effects in the short term.
On the investment front, the PNRR enters its decisive phase With planned expenses for the two-year period 2025-2026 equal to approximately 108 billion euros, while the European plan for rearmament could activate an additional expenditure of over 800 billion euros at European level, with positive effects on some Italian sectors.
THE sectors that see a greater increase in risk Credit are the cyclical, consumption and discretionary ones, more exposed to the economic situation and exports to the United States. Among these, the automotive (expected to go from 5.2% of March 2025 to 5.7% of March 2026), The textile-clothing (from 5.7% to 6.1%), Food and drinks (from 4.6% to 4.9%) and the pharmaceutical (from 4.2% to 4.5%).
On the contrary, the probability of default is expected to reduce less related sectors to the dynamics of international trade, including services for tourismhospitality and catering (from 8.7% of March 2025 to 8% of March 2026), ICT (from 4.6% to 4.4%) e utility (from 4.2% to 4%).
The probability of default for large companies is scheduled in estate by reaching 3.1% in March 2026, while for SMEs the Democratic Party increases from 6.3% of 2025 to 6.6% in 2026.
Looking at more in detail at companies that export to the USA, Like the mechanical industry, agrifood, textile and fashion and the processing of metals, it is noted that these companies show, overall, a financial solidity higher than the Italian average, with a probability of significantly lower average default (3.5% against 5.3%). Howeverexposure to US duty will increase their credit risk in the next 12 months in a greater way; in particular the SMEless structured from a patrimonial point of view and with smaller profit margins, see a much higher risky increase to that of similar companies but not exposed to the US market ( +8% against +3%). For large companies, however, the variation will be +4% respectively (for exporters) and +3% (non -exporters).
