Cryptocurrencies are running, the scenario in Italy

The global cryptocurrency market is worth 3 trillion dollars (data updated in mid-November) and is up by 79.2% compared to the month of January 2024, when the overall “turnover” of Bitcoin, Ethereum and other “crypto” stood at approximately 1,680 billion dollars . With 16.58% market share at the end of September 2024, in percentage terms, the most important crypto-asset market is that of the United States, followed by India, with 9.44%, and Brazil with ‘8.10%. Among the several thousand crypto-assets, the relatively highest market share goes by far to Bitcoin, which over time has reached 60%, followed by Ethereum at around 13%. As for the overall value, compared to “traditional” and regulated financial markets, these are marginal volumes: the overall capitalization of securities listed in financial markets, globally, stood at 112 trillion dollars in November .

Trump’s push

The policies announced by the president-elect of the United States Donald Trumpwhich will take office in a few days, have contributed to rekindling interest in cryptocurrencies. In fact, during the election campaign, Trump raised the possibility of establishing strategic national reserves in Bitcoin, stating that he wanted to make the USA an international reference for cryptocurrencies.

The Italian scenario

In Italy, – according to Fabi report – the market is worth 2.22 billion euros and 1.35 million Italians have “invested” in cryptocurrencies, with an average of 1,600 euros. The data refers to last June and is up by 870 million (+64%), compared to the 1.35 billion of June 2023. The trend over the 12 months, however, saw strong increases followed by sudden slowdowns in prices and noticeable fluctuations . The euro value of the overall balance of virtual currencies went from 1.35 billion at the end of June 2023 to 917 million euros in September of the same year, subsequently rising to almost 1.5 billion in December, and then skyrocketing in the first quarter of 2024, reaching 2.9 billion (+92% in just three months) and falling back to 2.2 billion in June 2024, marking a contraction in 22.4% in just three months. As for the characteristics of the Italian market of crypto-assetsover 99% of holders are represented by natural persons. Among these, Millennials are the most numerous (37%), but they hold amounts equal to approximately 39% of the total value, while holders between 40 and 60 years old, although representing 28% of the total, hold 49% of the total ” invested.” Furthermore, in the first six months of 2024, conversion operations were carried out from legal currencies (such as the euro) to virtual currencies, for a value of almost 2.8 billion, with an average of 9 operations per customer and an amount average of just over 260 euros. Conversely, the conversion operations of virtual currency into legal currency recorded amounted to approximately 2.9 billion, approximately 10 per customer and an average value of 266 euros. THE Millennials are the most active also in incoming and outgoing transfer operations from crypto asset service providers: approximately 74% of the overall operations can be traced back to them. These data, however, are not exhaustive of the crypto-assets market in Italy: only a part of the cryptocurrency portfolios and transactions take place through service providers duly registered in Italy, which means that a share of Italians’ investments in bitcoin or other instruments are not included in official monitoring and statistics.

The about-face on taxation

Contrary to what was announced, in Italy the tax on capital gains from cryptocurrencies will remain at 26% in 2025. In fact, the change foreseen in the first versions of the Budget Law which brought it up to 42% was not implemented. Only in 2026 will it rise to 33%. However, the no tax area up to 2 thousand euros is eliminated, thus expanding the range of subjects subject to taxation. Maintaining the withdrawal rate at 26%, combined with the abolition of the exemption threshold of 2 thousand euros, should guarantee the State a revenue of “at least equal to that currently collected” by 2025, i.e. 27 million euros. The figures expected for 2026 are a little more substantial, when the increase to 33% will kick in, which – according to the technical report accompanying the text of the maneuver – should reach 34.3 million euros”.

The Intesa Sanpaolo “test”.

“We are a bank, we are now the European leader in terms of market cap, so it should not be surprising if we do what all the other banks in the world do” said the CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, Carlo Messinaconfirming the group’s investment in cryptocurrencies, through the purchase of 11 bitcoins for approximately 1 million euros. Investment which represents the first operation of its kind by a large Italian credit institution. “Moreover, they are very limited amounts – underlined Messina – because we have 100 billion euros of securities portfolio, so one million euros is an experiment, it is a test and I believe it demonstrates how there can be very, very much attention towards digital channels. limited in terms of investment, but above all” of being “ready in the event that some particularly sophisticated clients ask to carry out these forms of investment”. Messina then underlined how «I myself personally consider it a form of investment that must be reserved for institutional operators and clients with truly great professionalism and great skills. I myself don’t invest in bitcoin.”