From mid -January the oil price dropped by 20 dollarsreaching around 60 dollars a barrel, of the reference toIncrease in the OPEC offer and the expectations of a decrease in the demand resulting from weaker growth prospects.
Today, the future on WTI exchanges at 60.74 dollars at Barie, down of over 15% since the beginning of the year, while the Brent of the sea north Exchanges to $ 64.41 per barrel, falling by 14% since the beginning of the year. According to the commodities strategists of Goldman Sachsa Further drop in prices for the remaining part of 2025 and 2026 And this further drop would have different impacts on inflation and GDP.
The impact of the drop in oil on inflation
The drop in oil prices, according to experts, will weigh on energy consumption prices, which will slow down overall inflation And a small part of the inflationary impact of the duties will compensate. The contribution of the energy prices to total inflation PCE on an annual basis has already dropped from about 0.05 percentage points in January a -0.2 points percentages in March and, according to the forecasts, will remain at approximately -0.2 points percentages For the rest of 2025.
The opposite effect of the duties
Usually, the inflation expectations of consumers They tend to be very sensitive to the variations in petrol prices. However, the tariff concerns have recently determined a strong increase in inflation expectations of consumers, despite the downward pressure deriving from the drop in prices of the petrol registered so far. On this basis, experts believe that a Further drop of petrol will influence inflation to a lesser.
Modest impulse to the growth of GDP
The drop in energy prices will have a positive effect on Available income realwhich in turn will stimulate the growth of consumption. However, the drop in oil prices will also affect investments in the capital account in the energy sector, which will reduce. Although capital investments in the energy sector have become less sensitive to price changes of oil compared to the boom of the schist (experts estimate that a drop of 10 dollars per barrel will affect the growth of GDP in the next year of just $ 0.05 percentage points compared to 0.15 percentage points of ten years ago), the net effect of the increase in consumption and the drag of capital investments could translate into a modest impulse to the growth of GDP.
