Between 2025 and 2026 duties Commercial and climate of uncertainty will contribute to a braking of the growth of Italian GDP, with an estimated reduction of 0.3 percentage points. This scenario leads to a reduction in the forecasts, which indicated an increase in the GDP of the 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. The new Flash report on the situation attends it, released today by the Study Center Confindustriaunderlining how the current economic phase present “more obstacles than pushed”.
Because the GDP will grow less
Due to a lower dynamic than the export of goods (-1.2%) and investments in machinery (-0.4%), duties and uncertainty will cause less growth in Italian GDP. For this, the report of the Study Center remarks:
“A EU tariff retaliation on purchases from the USA that would impact on the prices and trust of families and businesses, with a further braking of the crucial GDP, instead conclude new EU commercial agreements with other important economic partners (Mercosur, India) should be avoided.
Despite the continuation of the cutting of the rates by the central banks, the uncertainty fueled by repeated announcements on the duties and by their actual introduction is braking commercial exchanges and penalizing the spending and investment decisions, also aggravated by the instability of the financial markets. In March, the climate of trust was deteriorated for the second month, going down below the average of 2024, and the uncertainty of economic policy, which brakes the investment choices of businesses, increased.
The only positive note in this context is the drop in costs energy:
- The price of the gas in Europe dropped to € 37/MWH on average in April, from 50 to February;
- Electricity drops to € 108/MWh in April from 150;
- Finally, the oil is less expensive, now at $ 70/barrel from 75.
Industry more and more weak
The Italian industry, already weakened by a phase of stagnation Which has lasted for months, now risks sliding in a structural crisis, aggravated by growing uncertainty linked to duties. In February, highlights the CSC, industrial production recorded a drop of 0.9%, partly canceling the January rebound (+2.5%). The variation acquired for the first quarter is in any case positive (+0.4%) after five consecutive quarters downhill.
However, the RTT (Real Time Turnover) index reports a net drop in turnover In February, while the PMI index continues to indicate a contraction phase in March, going down to 46.6 points compared to the 47.4 of the previous month. The trust of the operators also continues to worsen, fueling fears on an increasingly fragile recovery.
Work grows, but also inactive
In the first months of 2025, employment continues to grow, despite the slowdown of the economy. In the bimonthly comparison, the number of employees increased by 1.0%, equal to over 230 thousand more units than the fourth quarter of 2024. The decrease in the unemployment rate also continues, confirming a positive dynamic of the labor market.
While the rise in the number of inactive It should be read with caution, because according to Confindustria “it represents a turnaround with respect to the drop that was evident from November 2024; the monthly data are often subject to revisions”.
