The latest OECD report tells a 2025 critic for the global economy. Mainly weigh thegeopolitical instability and the tightening of commercial policies, in particular the duties imposed by the United States. These, in fact, create frictions in international markets and cause a general slowdown in the economy.
Among the countries that will suffer most is Italy, where the effects of instability will weigh on growth, making it slide to 0.6%. But the forecast on the trend of Global GDP is generally decreasing: from 3.3% estimated for 2024 it goes to 2.9% for 2025. A content cut, yes, but which reflects a reduction trend for the next few years. There is not only international trade and investments at risk, but also internal demand. And Italy, with a growing growth in the OECD area, is confirmed as one of the most fragile in an increasingly competitive global context.
Italy below the OECD average
Italy is among the European countries that grow less: it has done so in 2024 and theEconomy will slow down again In 2025. According to data, in 2024 we stopped at 0.7%, while for 2025 a 0.6%is expected. The preliminary data then speak of a weak rise to 0.7% for 2026.
The OECD does not just describe the serious situation globally, but also offers advice on how to mitigate the impact of the many crises in progress. For Italy, a faster implementation of the PNRR and a relaunch of exports could help reverse the trend, promoting private investments and employment.
As for the general picture, growth will be weak, but in Europe it could be slightly more dynamic:
- +0.8% in 2024;
- +1.0% in 2025;
- +1.2% in 2026.
In light of these data, Italy still remains a tail light with respect to Training European countries Like Denmark, Ireland and Poland, who will guide the expansion in 2025.
Instability: war and duties
2025 was not better than 2024 from the geopolitical instability point of view. This, which many thought could be mitigated by the intervention of Donald Trump – who promised to end the ongoing wars – has actually become even more hostile.
Among the negative protagonists of the global economy there is the non-alvator Donald Trump, whose duties imposed on the rest of the world have created frictions and closures with historical commercial partners such as Europe itself.
Only by loosening the pressures will it be possible to see a recovery, however fragile and dysomogeneous, of the global economy.
The problem, however, is also the war in all its forms, not only the commercial one. In fact, the relationships between states are increasingly complex, pulled by one or the other due to political, religious and border alliances. All factors that do not help stability.
Inflation and consumption
Finally, the last point of the OECD report looks atinflation. This data, dramatic in some countries, makes the economic framework even more uncertain. Just think that in 2025, in the OECD area, there are situations of high inflation.
Without concrete actions that intervene on prices, several European countries will find themselves in the same situation, or in further slowing down consumption e braking development and growth.
Faced with all this, the OECD recipe is easier to say than to do: lower the duties, encourage economic cooperation and invest in reforms such as those for strengthening the supply chains and the diversification of the markets to thus guarantee greater stability for global growth. Exactly, easier to say than to do.
