The United Kingdom they United States they agreed on a commercial pact which, between patriotic rhetoric and export pragmatism, presents itself as a “historian”. The signature falls with manual timing: the anniversary of the victory in Europe of 1945, just to add pathos. Keir Starmer spoke of “tribute” to the transatlantic alliance, while Donald Trump, with the usual enthusiasm from the square, celebrated “a great agreement” that It would open the doors of the British market to billions of dollars of American goodsin particular agricultural. Starmer, in connection, did his part in the duet, promising florid trade, safe jobs and others coming.
While London toast, in Brussels there are potential collateral damage. The two agreement, which climbs the single market and ignores any coordination with the European Union, comes as a blow of horn in European diplomatic traffic.
THE’Italy finds himself in one position still in the balance: exposed on key sectors, from mechanic to agri -food. The details of the intensity remain nebulosis, but the consequences already begin to outline. Starting with a new competitive imbalance that risks moving commercial flows and investments outside the community perimeter.
What does the US-UK agreement provide for duties
According to what is trapped, Washington will remove immediately i duties 25% On British steel and aluminumwhile Made in UK cars will benefit from a generous tariff discount: from 27.5% to 10%, but only for the top 100 thousand units per year. In addition to that threshold, the old Balzelli return. In return, London puts his hand to the wallet and promises 10 billion dollars in Boeing orders. Not only that: Downing Street promises to unravel the tangle of rules that have so far kept American companies away.
The agricultural products and the US drugs also end up inside the agreement, which will find a softer welcome, unlike Italy, thanks to harmonized standards and preferential lanes. All wrapped in the reassuring packaging of “strategic supply chain safety”. To report, for those looking for substance beyond the label, that It is still a framework agreement: The details are in leavening phase.
Pressure on the EU allies: Trump relaunches the challenge of bilateral trade
The agreement on the duties between Washington and London marks the noisiest debut of yet another American protectionist season. Trump, just in the first days of the mandate, started to hit Brussels, accusing her of playing dirty and threatening rain duties. Then he thought about it, then he still changed his mind. A few hours after the handshake with London, He announced he wants to sit with Europe toobut in his own way: first the conditions, then the dialogue.
In Brussels, the answer was halfway between institutional composure and strategic irritation. The commission brought out the rules booklet, activating an appeal to the WTOIn the meantime, and in the meantime he has polished a list of 95 billion euros in commercial retaliation, parked but ready to shoot.
Plan B also on the table: dialogue, but without free concessions. In this regard, Tajani recalled that a cohesive European front is needed, in order not to be overwhelmed by a dynamic that speaks more American than multilateral.
Europe at risk: economic impact of the US-UK agreement on EU exports
The US-UK agreement introduces a competitive short circuit which risks penalizing the European industry with a certain brutality. British producers, thanks to preferential lanes on steel and aluminum, find themselves with a tariff advantage that EU steel aerurgical companies can only look from afar.
Meanwhile, London and Washington also embrace themselves on technology and aerospace. More than an agreement, an exclusive dinner invitation from which Brussels was elegantly excluded. European suppliers risk ending up outside menu.
And on agri -food sidethe opening of the British market to meat and American corn clearly excludes continental products.
How much Italy can lose: estimates on exports, GDPs and employment
A war scenario of the duties with Washington could curb the growth of Italian exportswith impacts on employment and investments. Bankitalia and Confindustria estimate that prolonged duties can subtract until a few tenths of GDP in 2025.
The Italian government, for now, maintains one prudent line. Economy Minister Giorgetti asked for coordination at G7 level and greater EU flexibility on the budget for any help to affected companies. Tajani pushes for a unitary European response and for tight negotiations with Washington, while possible support and promotion measures on alternative markets are discussed.
