Spotlight on tomorrow’s ECB meeting, Thursday 12 December, during which a new snip is widely expected 25 basis points but the Governors are already looking to the future by opening the comparison between the doves which aim for a more decisive pace of reduction in the cost of money in the face of the unknowns of Trump, tariffs and the political case in France, hey hawks who instead ask for caution.
ECB, new cut expected
Therefore, tomorrow, a probable further decrease of 25 basis points in the deposit rate is scheduled on the table of the central bankers, which would thus fall to 3% from the current 3.25%.And. A move that is practically taken for granted by the markets, even if a minority is aiming for an even more decisive cut half a point.
Hawks-doves clash over 2025
The decisions will be guided by the new estimates on growth and inflation between now and 2027 which will accompany the decision and which will be presented by the president Christine Lagarde. A further worsening of the growth picture is expected despite the better-than-expected +0.4% in the third quarter: forecasts that would validate the rapid achievement of inflation objectives “sustainably” close to 2%.
For analysts of Goldman Sachs, the Eurotower board will reduce the cost of money sequentially, with interventions of 25 basis points until reaching1.75% in July.
What impact on mortgages?
If the Eurotower were to scissor the indices of 25 basis points, lThe installment of a standard variable mortgage could drop by around 18 euros in the coming months, going from the current 682 euros to 664 euros. This is what Facile.it estimates, recalling that from the beginning of 2024 to today the installment of a standard mortgage has dropped by 66 euros, going from 748 euros to 682 euros, still very far from the values at the beginning of 2022, when it was equal to just 456 euros.
“Given the favorable conditions market, many have taken advantage of the banks’ offers to replace the mortgage, switching from variable to fixed and thus reducing the instalment”, explain the experts at Facile.it. “But thanks to the ECB’s cuts, even those who maintained the variable were able to save, albeit in a less marked way”.
Caution also awaits the Fed, which meets on December 18 and on which the hopes of a new cut gjust in time for Christmas they will have to deal with the incoming inflation data.
