In the aftermath of the Federal elections in Germanywho have had a record turnout of the84% Out of 60 million with the right, the most voted party was the CDU-CSU, the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian-social union of Bavaria led by Friedrich Merzwho obtained the 28.6% votes e 208 seats At the Bundestag, the Federal Parliament based in Berlin. In second place the far -right party was placed AFD (Alternative Für Deutschland) with the 20.8% preferences e 152 seatsfollowed by the Social Democratic Party of the outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz (16.4% and 120 seats), the Greens (11.6% and 85 seats) and the Left Party Linke (8.7% and 64 seats).
The result could report a minimum of stability in the European Union, which especially after Brexit has linked its “health status” to that of the two main Member States: Germany and France. With the French president Emmanuel Macron It has been committed to managing a fragmented parliament for months and a weak government and under the continuous threat of no confidence and Germany without a government, the end of 2024 saw a European union that seemed without a direction to follow. A weakness made even more evident from the beginning of the presidency of Donald Trump in the United States, which in a few weeks brought closer to his administration to Russia of Vladimir Putinthe Ukrainian president humiliated and insulted on several occasions Volodymyr Zelensky and demonstrated hostility towards Europe and the values it represents.
The probable CDU-SPD government: what could happen
In this context, the elections of Sunday 23 February in Germany take on a value that goes far beyond the boundaries of the Federal Republic of Germany. The Next Chancellor It will therefore be the leader of the CDU Friedrich Merzwho has already declared that he wants to form a government by Easter, that is, mid -April. The most probable choice is that of a Coalition between the CDU and the Social Democrats (SPD), who together would have the seats to guarantee a solid parliamentary majority without opening to a third partner like the Greens.
Merz on Ukraine
But what does Friedrich Merz’s future government mean for the European Union? A clue can come from some statements that the future chancellor has released during the election campaign. In particular, on the position of the Union regarding the war in Ukraine and relations with the United States was very clear. Merz reiterated that European institutions cannot be excluded from the current negotiations Between Moscow and Washington on the future of Ukraine. A concept that repeated immediately after the elections, stating that Germany will remain alongside Kiev By providing funding and military material because “now more than ever we must put Ukraine in a force position” and ensure that the Ukrainian government participate in negotiations as a guarantee of a “right peace”. To date, the Germany is already the second supplier of war material to Ukraine After the United States, but Merz said he wanted to engage more than his predecessor. For example, it has opened to the possibility of sending Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine, capable of flying at low altitude to hit targets of high strategic value.
Germany changes Europe? Possible common defense
By expanding the speech beyond the war in Ukraine, Merz is also a convinced supporter of the necessity for the European Union to develop an autonomous defense It is an industry capable of supporting it, without relying on the NATO umbrella and in particular of the United States. Even if in part mitigated in the last few days, Merz has declared that theEurope must be prepared for the event that the Atlantic alliance can soon disappear. For this reason, he also suggested that Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other European partners concerned should strengthen their cooperation in the field of nuclear defense, so that they can do without that provided by the United States from 1945 to today. By making a forecast, Merz’s position is likely to strengthen the defense of Germany and the European Union will meet the position that the French president has also been supporting for some time Macron. With theFranco German axis renewed and strengthened by the solidity of the Merz governmentthe European Union is likely to go in this direction.
The increase in military expenses in Europe
A first signal has already arrived on February 14, when the President of the European Commission Ursula von der leyen has announced the desire to introduce one safeguard clause on the investments of the EU member countries in the field of Defense And safety. This specifying that the expenses of European governments in these fields will not be counted in the tax parameters provided for by the stability and growth pact that must respect the 27 States of the Union. Answering the questions of journalists during the commemorations of February 24 in Kiev for the Third year from the beginning of the Russian Vication of Ukrainevon der Leyen also claimed that the country could become a member of the Union by 2030. An affirmation that put in perspective of Russian aggression and the expert hostility of the current US administration towards the Union makes even more concrete the possibility that European military spending will increase constantly in the coming years.
