The racing race in Europe has reached levels that have not been seen since the time of the Cold War: according to the latest ADA (European Defense Agency), in 2024 the overall expenditure of the EU countries touched 343 billion euros, with an increase of +19% compared to the previous year.
A record figure, driven by the conflict in Ukraine and pressure to fill the gap with the United States.
Record military expenditure
According to the analysis of the ADA, the increase in military spending has been pulled above all by “record levels of purchases of equipment and by growing investments in research and development”. The expense surge, explains the agency, “reflects the determination of the Member States to strengthen the military skills of Europe in response to the evolution of the safety context”.
But nevertheless, Eda highlights how European spending remains less than that of the USA, highlighting the “need for supported investments and greater collaboration to maximize efficiency”.
By 2025, the expenditure for European rearmament should rise to 381 billion euros, equal to 2.1% of the European GDP, exceeding for the first time the target of 2% set in the NATO area. But the long -term horizon is even more ambitious: at the NATO of The Hague it has been established that by 2035 each Member State will have to allocate 5% of the GDP to defense and safety.
Resto in Italy: from 32 billion current to risk 100 billion
For our country, the path is no less demanding. According to born estimates, in 2024 Italy spent about 32 billion euros, equal to 1.5% of GDP. Rome promised to reach the 2%threshold already in 2025, with an expense around 42 billion euros. However, much of this increase will be the result of a “accounting game”: in the calculation costs will be classified now elsewhere, such as those of the Guardia di Finanza or cybersicacy.
The hardest jump will come with the obligation of 3.5% of GDP for military spending alone, to which is added 1.5% intended for other security items (critical infrastructures, innovation, civil resilience). In absolute values, it will mean that Italy will have to allocate over 100 billion euros per year by 2035. Even in the most prudent estimate, the adjustment will require between 165 and 220 billion euros additional in the next ten years.
The rearmament and the node of resources
The problem, as always, is that of the roofs: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ensures, on the one hand, that the increase in expenses will not subtract “even one euro” in healthcare, welfare and education. On the other hand, however, the concrete fear is that to find the tens of additional billions will not only be enough to cut some waste.
The experts hypothesize four possible roads, none of which would be painless:
- The cuts in social spending are historically the most immediate way to free resources even if this would accentuate the chronic scarcity of resources in sectors already in suffering such as public health;
- The increase in taxes could affect fuels, consumption and businesses;
- The privatizations would be useful to generate one -off revenues but are judged insufficient to cover long -term commitments;
- Making new debt is a road that risks clashing with European budget constraints and financial markets without considering the fact that the Italian public debt has already exceeded € 3,070 billion.
The risk is that Italy is, in the coming years, close between the role of reliable partner of NATO and the pressure of a public opinion that asks for more hospitals, more schools and more support for families.
