Last session of the week with a sharp decline for European stock markets, where risk aversion prevailed due to uncertainty over the next moves of the US Federal Reserve, after some statements that raised doubts about a cut in December, and due to the fear that the valuations of technology stocks may have reached unsustainable levels in some cases. The FTSE MIB fared worst of all, weighed down by profit-taking on banking stocks.
On the macroeconomic front, in the Eurozone the second estimate of GDP for the 3rd quarter confirmed the cyclical expansion of +0.2%: growth was driven above all by the outperformance of Spain (+0.6%) and France (+0.5%), against a stagnation (or contraction) of the economies accounting for around 49% of GDP (including Germany and Italy). In September the Eurozone’s trade surplus improved to 19.4 billion euros from 1 billion in August: exports increased by +7.7% y/y and imports by +5.3%.
The main price lists
Among the Eurozone indices, a moderate contraction for Frankfurt, which suffers a decline of 0.69%, London is under pressure, with a sharp decline of 1.11%, and Paris suffers, which shows a loss of 0.76%.
Rain of sales on the Milanese list, which ends with a heavy decline of 1.70%; along the same lines, deep red for the FTSE Italia All-Share, which stops at 46,575 points, a sharp decline of 1.71%. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap is in the red (-1.19%); following the same trend, the FTSE Italia Star fell (-1.25%).
Italian titles
At the top of the ranking of the most important stocks in Milan, we find Azimut (+3.50%, breathing after yesterday’s plunge), Recordati (+1.34%), Terna (+1.03%, following the presentation of the positive results of the 9 months under the management of Giuseppina Di Foggia) and Snam (+0.67%). The strongest declines, however, occurred on Unicredit, which closed the session at -4.45%. BPER falls, with a decline of 3.81%. Prey of the sellers Banca Popolare di Sondrio, with a decrease of 3.55%. Sales are concentrated on Banco BPM, which suffers a drop of 3.27%.
Among the best stocks in the FTSE MidCap, Pharmanutra (+3.10%), Cembre (+2.93%), GVS (+2.61%) and doValue (+1.43%). The worst performances, however, were recorded on Rai Way, which closed at -7.77%. WIIT collapses, with a decline of 5.66%. Sales aplenty on Reply, which suffered a decrease of 5.56%. Sales on ERG, which recorded a decline of 3.51%.
US data out
After the end of the shutdown, investors await the release of important US macroeconomic data, about which much uncertainty still remains. The first major data to be released will be the September jobs report, which will most likely be released early next week. September JOLT data, PCE and Q3 GDP are expected to follow in about a week. The fate of the October data remains less clear, as the lockdown interfered with data collection periods. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may receive some responses for the October Business Survey (used to calculate nonfarm payrolls) as it collects November data. However, the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, is completely absent.
Moody’s rating on Italy
On Friday, Moody’s is expected to review its sovereign rating of Italy. This could represent another important step in the constructive trend that has characterized the overall assessment of Italy’s creditworthiness. Among the main rating agencies, Moody’s remains the most cautious, still assigning Italy a Baa3 rating, due to concerns about the country’s high public debt. This, combined with a slight increase in the cost of debt servicing and structural challenges such as an aging population, continues to weigh on the rating. In May, Moody’s revised the outlook from stable to positive, reflecting an improving fiscal trajectory and a stable domestic political environment.
