The commercial war and customs duties return to the center of the world economic scene. A new report of the International Monetary Fund He says that the escalation of rates is slowing down global growth. In this tense climate, Donald Trump surprised the observers by announcing the possibility of Reduce the duties imposed on Chinawhile from international financial institutions, FMI and European Central Bank, strong support for the independence of monetary policy embodied by the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, arrives.
Despite recent openings, Donald Trump continues to move unpredictable, alternating conciliatory tones a New tariff threatsgenerating further Instability on the markets. A strategy that, according to many analysts, appears more dictated by electoral calculations than by a long -term economic vision. The policy of the duties, flagged as patriotic protectionism, has often proved to be a boomerang, first of all affecting companies and American consumers.
Report FMI 2025: duties and global growth in braking
According to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund, the world economy has entered one critical phase Due to the escalation of commercial duties. The IMF has revised the estimates of the estimates global growth For 2025 at 2.8%, with a cut of 0.5 percentage points compared to the forecasts of the beginning of the year.
Protective policies, primarily those implemented by the United States, are indicated as the main brake of the situation: the uncertainty generated by duties and counterdations reduces international investments and exchanges, weakening growth prospects.
No great economy is immune to slowing down. The United States see the growth expected to halve at 1.8% in 2025 (from 2.8% in 2024), with a risk of recession rising to 40%. Even China, strongly dependent on exports, slows down: Chinese GDP is expected to grow by only 4%.
In the eurozone, expected growth descends to a modest +0.8%, e Italy is no exceptionso the IMF estimates a small +0.4% in 2025. “The growing uncertainty and the duties are the main factors” of the braking, warns the fund, urging governments to restore stable and predictable commercial policies to avoid further shocks.
Trump-China duties: possible reductions in sight
After bringing customs tariffs to China at record levels (up to 145%), Trump now seems ready for a partial reverse. During a meeting with the press at the White House, the American president, as has now accustomed us to sudden changes and marching reversals, and said that “in the end it will reduce the duties on China but not to zero”, recognizing that the negative effects of the rates “will feel for a while” in the United States.
Trump defined the current phase “a transition period” and has been said optimistic On the fact that Washington and Beijing can “work well together” towards a commercial agreement.
And so we are in a new phase. The prospect of a de-Escalation In the war of duties he restored breath to the financial markets. Optimism is fueled by rumors about interviews in progress between the two powers: sources of Washington indicate that the negotiations with Beijing are proceeding “very well” and that the US administration would be close to tariff agreements with various countries. Signals of relaxation, therefore, that could mitigate the commercial tensions of recent years and give new impulse to global growth.
FMI and Lagarde in support of Powell
And then there is also another fact. The arm wrestling between Trump and Federal Reserve worries international observers. For days the US president has been attacking Jerome Powell and even calling him even “A big loser” And he is loudly asking for a cut in interest rates to stimulate the economy.
The IMF, however, sides in defense of theindependence of the American central bank and the Powell line: it is a “cornerstone“, The chief economist FMI Pierre-Olyvier Gourinchas said, explaining that the Fed is good to keep rates still waiting to evaluate the impact of duties. In other words, monetary policy should not bend to political pressure, especially in a phase of strong uncertainty.
In support of Powell, Christine Lagarde, president of the ECB, also expressed himself openly in his defense. Lagarde said he had “immense respect for the work” of the head of the Fed and, in a television interview, hoped that the possibility of removing it “is not a real risk”.
