A positive week ends for stocks in the real estate sector, listed on Piazza Affari and, in Europe, with investors’ attention once again focused on central banks which move rates with effects on the sector.
ECB minutes: unanimity on firm rates, different views on inflation risks
All members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) supported chief economist Philip Lane’s proposal to keep three key interest rates unchanged at their September meeting. According to the minutes of the meeting of 10-11 September, the experts’ new projections had presented a similar inflation picture to that forecast in June and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook had remained essentially unchanged. In particular, data following the July meeting confirmed that the inflation outlook continued to be positive and that the domestic economy remained resilient, with risks to economic growth now more balanced. “There was therefore no immediate pressure to change the reference rates at the meeting”, we read in the minutes, where it is explained that “the context remained more uncertain than usual, mainly due to the volatility of the global trade environment, but also due to geopolitical developments. Such uncertainty could also justify keeping interest rates unchanged. In particular, the current situation was destined to change substantially at some point, but at the moment it was difficult know when and in which direction”
Fed minutes: FOMC majority expects two more cuts this year
Persistent concerns about inflation, however, emerged from the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. According to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17, most US central bank officials thought it would probably be appropriate to further ease monetary policy for the rest of the year. A majority of participants highlighted upside risks to their inflation outlook. Officials at that meeting voted 11 to 1 to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 4% to 4.25%, the first such cut this year. One official, newly appointed Stephen Miran, supported a half-percentage-point reduction and voted against the decision. There have been divisions over whether two or three total reductions should be made this year, including the quarter-percentage-point cut approved at the Sept. 16-17 meeting. A 10-9 majority supported quarter-point equivalent cuts at each of this year’s two remaining meetings.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese square closed the eighth on the rise with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index bringing home a rise of 1.3%. Same trend, albeit more limited, for the sector at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining 0.4%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Brioschi soars with +10.3%. Risanamento (+5.5%) and Gabetti (+8.6%) also did well. Rises of over 3 for AbitareIn and Next Re. IGD is weak, dropping 0.3%. However, the fall for Aedes was heavy (-8.9%).
Macroeconomic data
Mortgage applications are plummeting in the United States. In the week to 26 September, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded a decrease of 12.7%, after the +0.6% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests fell by 20.6%, while that relating to new applications fell by 1%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicated that rates on 30-year mortgages rose to 6.46% from 6.34% previously.
Sector studies
The third quarter of 2025 closed with investments of 2.6 billion euros, recording a slight decline compared to the same period of 2024. Considering the first nine months of the year, the Italian market however attracted approximately 8 billion euros, up by 21% compared to the same period of 2024, confirming the sentiment of confidence of the players in the real estate sector. The analysis of the Dils Research Team highlights that the performance in the quarter was supported by the Retail sector which, with over 1.1 billion euros invested, achieved the best result in the last five years. In the first 9 months the sector totaled over 2.2 billion euros, marking a growth of 38% compared to 2024. The major contributions of the quarter derive from the finalization of two transactions with a value of more than 400 million euros each, relating to the shopping center and factory outlet sectors.
According to a study conducted by Idealista, a leading real estate portal for technological development in Italy, the profitability of homes grows to 9.7% in the third quarter of 2025, up compared to the 9.3% recorded at the end of summer 2024. This yield is more than double that offered by 10-year government bonds (3.5%), even in the case of the least performing real estate product.
