On 29 July 2025 Novo Nordisk recorded a drop of 26% of its shares to the Copenhagen stock exchange, following the cutting of the growth forecasts for 2025. The Danish company, among the main world manufacturers of diabetes and weight loss, indicated several factors behind this revision, including US competition, the diffusion of counterfeit drugs and the impact of the exchange rate.
One of the main causes of the downward revision concerns the growing competition on the US market. In particular, Eli Lilly has strengthened its presence with Zepbound drugs (for weight loss) and Mounjaro (for diabetes), both based on tirzepatide. These products proved to be more effective than the traffic lights, an active ingredient of the drugs Novo Nordisk Wegovy and Ozempic. A clinical study has shown that Zepbound involves weight loss of 20.2% after 72 weeks, against 13.7% of Wegovy.
The prescriptions of Zepbound have exceeded Wegovy in the United States starting from March 2024. Today the Eli Lilly products represent over half of the requirements in their category, while Novo Nordisk holds a combined share of 46%. Analysts estimate that Eli Lilly currently checks 40% of the American market of slimming drugs and provide for an almost equal subdivision by the end of the year.
The spread of counterfeit drugs
Novo Nordisk has reported another significant criticality: the presence of unauthorized versions of its drugs on the US market. These are galenic compounds based on traffic lights sold by pharmacies and online platforms at lower prices compared to official products that can reach up to $ 1,000 per month.
According to the company, “without an aggressive intervention by the federal and state regulations and law enforcement authorities, patients will continue to be exposed to the significant risks placed by counterfeit drugs based on traffic lights”. Although the FDA has declared the end of the lack of traffic lights in February 2025, many entities continue to sell these illegal versions. Novo Nordisk reacted by starting 111 legal actions in 32 US states and interrupting the collaboration with Hims & Hers, a telemedicine platform accused of selling unauthorized drugs.
Duties and commercial uncertainty
To further complicate the situation there is the question of customs duties between the European Union and the United States. The agreement signed in July provides rates of 15% on most European goods, but the inclusion of drugs remains controversial. The White House mentioned them among the assets subject to duties, while European sources indicate that they could be temporarily excluded pending the outcome of an American investigation. According to estimates, the application of a 15% duty to European drugs could cost the pharmaceutical industry between 13 and 19 billion dollars a year. Novo Nordisk has announced the construction of a factory in North Carolina, but the plant will only take place in 2029.
In the face of this situation, the company has announced the gearbox at the helm: Maziar Mike Doustdar will become the new CEO starting from 7 August. Currently executive vice -president of international operations, Doustdar will happen to Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen, removed in May after a difficult year for the stock.
The new financial forecasts
The new forecasts for 2025 indicate a growth in sales between 8% and 14% and a growth in operational profit between 10% and 16%, both at constant exchange rate. These values are lower than the previous estimate which provided for a growth in sales between 13% and 21% and operating profit between 16% and 24%.
The company has also communicated that the increase in sales and operational profit in Danish crowns will be reduced respectively by 4 and 7 percentage points due to the depreciation of the dollar. The expected free cash flow is now between 35 and 45 billion Danish crowns.
As for the first half of 2025, Novo Nordisk indicated a growth in 18% sales and the 29% operating profit at constant exchange rates. Full data will be published on August 6th.
