Gold returns to the center of market attention. Today the spot price remains around 4,468 dollars per ounce, after the jump of more than 2% recorded in the previous session. US futures expiring in December are, however, just above $4,500.
The precious metal thus consolidates the recovery of the $4,400 threshold, supported by the decline in bond yields and the weakening of the dollar. However, the picture remains unstable: the employment report in the United States, due out this afternoon, could change the direction of the market again.
Because the price of gold has started to rise again
The movement was aided by statements from Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller. In his speech on the prospects of the American economy, Waller recognized the first signs of a slowdown in inflation.
If this trend is confirmed by the next data, the governor would be in favor of keeping rates unchanged at the Fed meeting on 15 and 16 September. If, however, inflation were to accelerate again, a new increase would remain possible.
For gold the prospect of a pause is positive. The precious metal does not pay interest and tends to become relatively more attractive when bond yields fall or rate rise expectations decrease.
Further support comes from the dollar. Because gold is priced in U.S. currency, a weaker dollar can make the metal less expensive for those purchasing using euros, yen or other currencies.
The decisive test comes from American work
The main event of the day is scheduled for 2.30pm Italian, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the employment report in the United States for August, as indicated in the official calendar of American surveys.
Subdued job growth or rising unemployment could further reduce the possibility of a Fed tightening, favoring gold. Higher-than-expected numbers could, however, cause the dollar and yields to rise, triggering profit-taking on the precious metal.
Simply exceeding $4,500 intraday would therefore not represent a guarantee. To speak of a more solid signal, it would be necessary to remain above this threshold, accompanied by new purchases by investors.
How much can the price of gold rise
The forecasts remain very broad. In its analysis of gold’s prospects in 2026, State Street identifies three scenarios:
- basic scenario between 4,000 and 4,500 dollars
- bullish scenario between 4,500 and 5,000 dollars
- negative scenario between 3,500 and 4,000 dollars.
Forecasts developed by ING also indicate a possible average of around $4,600 in the fourth quarter, warning however that the path could remain particularly volatile.
Above all, central bank purchases, investor demand and the role of gold as a safe haven are supporting the price in the medium term. According to the World Gold Council’s outlook, central bank demand should remain structurally high, although not necessarily reaching the exceptional levels of 2025.
Quota 5,000 dollars is, therefore, possible, but it represents the most favorable scenario and not a certain prediction.
What risks those who buy gold now
The first risk is to enter after a very rapid rise. If rate expectations change or the dollar strengthens again, gold could undergo a correction even in the absence of a real economic crisis.
The second problem concerns performance. Gold does not pay coupons or dividends: any gain depends exclusively on the increase in price. When government bonds and bonds offer high yields, the opportunity cost of holding gold increases.
For an Italian saver there is also the exchange rate risk. The international price is expressed in dollars and a strengthening euro can reduce or even cancel out part of the metal’s rise.
Those who choose to purchase physical gold for investment must also consider the difference between the purchase and sale price, the costs of storage and insurance and the verification of authenticity. In the case of listed ETCs, however, it is necessary to check costs, liquidity, replication methods, exchange risk and information document.
Is it better to buy gold now or wait
There is no one-size-fits-all entry level. Buying after the recent recovery exposes you to the risk of a correction, while waiting could mean missing out on a further rise.
A possible prudent strategy is to split the investment into multiple entries, avoiding concentrating the entire sum on a single price. Gold should be viewed primarily as a tool for diversification and asset protection, not as a bet on immediate upside.
The American jobs report represents the first test. Afterwards the focus will shift to the inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting. These appointments will determine whether 4,500 will become a basis for attempting to approach 5,000 dollars or the starting point of a new correction.
