Gold prices are back close to the highs, which today reached a high of $4,200 intraday, before being pushed back to $4,190.15 an ounce. At these levels, the prices of the precious metal show an increase of 2.3% on a weekly basis and 5.6% in the last month. If November closes with a positive performance, a look at this year’s growth (+58%) confirms that 2025 will be remembered as the record year for gold which reached an all-time high of $4,398.
The weakness of the dollar
The expectation of new interventions by the Federal Reserve on interest rates contributed to supporting gold prices. A more accommodating attitude from the American central bank, in fact, would have a depressive effect on the dollar, devaluing it, and a parallel positive impact on gold as an alternative to the greenback.
The Fed effect
Expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December (meeting scheduled for December 9-10) have been revitalized by some mixed economic data and the positions taken by some members of the FOMC, the central bank’s monetary policy committee.
The president of the New York Federal Reserve, John Williams, reignited expectations of a rate cut as early as December, saying that the central bank can reduce the cost of money “in the near term” without compromising the goal of returning inflation to 2%. Fed Governor Christopher Waller also said he was in favor of cutting interest rates in December. “My concern is mainly about the labor market, in relation to our dual mandate. So I propose a rate cut at the next meeting,” said Waller, who is indicated as Powell’s most likely successor at the helm of the Federal Reserve.
After remaining frozen at fifty-fifty for several days, bets on a December rate cut surged this week, rising above the 82% mark in favor of a 25 basis point reduction.
Deutsche Bank revises the price upwards
Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast for 2026, citing resilient investor demand, heavy buying by central banks and limited supply response. The German investment bank now expects an average price of $4,450 an ounce in 2026, up from its previous forecast of $4,000 an ounce, with an expected trading range between $3,950 and $4,950 an ounce. A high of $4,950 an ounce would be about 14% above current prices.
“The positive structural picture shows inelastic demand from central banks and ETF investments diverting supply from the jewelry market. Furthermore, overall demand growth outstrips supply,” Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said in a note.
