The price of gold has touched a new historical maximum, touching $ 3,700 altitude for mid -September 2025. The yellow metal has earned about 10% in the last few weeks, confirming the main good refuge on financial markets in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations for the decisions of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
The Relzo dell’Oro arrives while the debt crisis in Europe, with the cutting of the French rating by Fitch, and the tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe feed the demand for safe assets. At the same time, the possible weakening of the dollar and future cuts of US rates make gold even more attractive for international investors.
Gold movements
From April to July, the price of gold had remained in a range between 3,200 and $ 3,400 ounce, without large oscillations. In August the trend changed: with the data on the most favorable American inflation and the expectations of a more accommodating turning point by the Fed, the gold accelerated, reaching levels never seen before and closing the second week of September close to $ 3,680 the ounce.
The effects of geopolitics
International tensions remain the main engine of the demand. The conflict in Ukraine and financial penalties against Russia have pushed many central banks to diversify reserves, reducing exposure to the dollar. Since 2022, official gold purchases have grown significantly. Poland, in particular, was the world’s largest buyer in the first seven months of 2025, with about 67 tons, according to the World Gold Council.
The political and economic crisis in Europe helps to strengthen gold appeal. The Fitch Agency cut the France rating from AA-A+, bringing it to the lowest level ever for the second economy of the Eurozone. Even the difficulties of the budget in the United Kingdom feeds the fears of the investors, who take refuge in the assets perceived as safer.
Expectations
Analysts are divided on the future of yellow metal. For some, such as Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution, the current Rally could represent a temporary phase linked to “market noise”. Others, like Pepperstone’s Michael Brown, believe that the fundamentals remain solid: the dollar has lost ground since the beginning of the year, public deficits increase and the prospect of lower rates supports the demand for gold.
The value of the dollar
The relationship with the American currency remains decisive. Normally, the wait for rates in the United States weakens the dollar and strengthens gold. In recent weeks, however, the green ticket has shown a certain estate, also supported by the concerns for the debt crisis in Europe. In the long run, however, the tendency to a weaker dollar could continue to feed the gold race.
