The roller coaster of gold prices raises reflections on the stability of the safe haven par excellence. The price of the yellow metal collapsed by more than 6% in a single session on October 21, recording the steepest drop since 2013, after a bull run that had broken record after record for weeks.
For analysts it was a technical correction in response to the unbridled rally that led gold to surpass the 4,000 dollar mark per ounce, soaring by 25% in just two months. Although the price then fell below the historical threshold, in recent days it has started to grow again, leading several players not to rule out further increases.
The price trend of the safe haven asset
After updating the historical record, reaching 4,381.52 dollars per ounce on Monday 20 October (121.03 euros per gram), the following day gold prices plummeted to 4,082 dollars, closing on the European stock exchanges with 4,114 dollars (-3.9%) of the Gold Spot price (with immediate delivery) and 4,131 dollars (around -5%) for the Comex (with delivery in December).
A decline which, despite the fluctuations, continued to below 4,000, demonstrating, according to some experts, the exhaustion of a speculative bubble which would have fueled the dizzying growth of the precious metal in recent weeks.
On Wednesday 5 November, prices started to rise again, with the spot Gold price closing at 3,967.79 dollars an ounce, +0.89%, the Comex trading at 3,980 dollars an ounce, with an increase of 0.49%.
The record rush for gold in 2025
Despite the sharp slowdown following the crazy run recorded from September onwards, gold seems to continue its march towards the best annual performance since the 1970s, when the energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation brought the price of the metal to its highest levels.
The new increases on gold arise from the combination of a precarious economic panorama and geopolitical scenario, combined with an unstable monetary policy, which push investors towards the main safe haven asset.
The result is year-to-date growth of more than 50% of the value from the beginning of 2025 and more than double if we look at the last two years.
According to the analysts of Ofi Invest AM, the exceptional performance of gold should not however be reduced to a simple speculative activity of the markets, because it would be supported by some solid factors.
These include the public debts of the world’s major economies such as the United States, China and Japan, which is forcing their respective central banks to cut interest rates or keep them low, making gold more attractive.
Furthermore, the shutdown in the USA and the limited margins for economic maneuver in countries such as the United Kingdom and France would represent elements of further stimulus to demand for the yellow metal.
According to the analysis of the Head of Commodities of Ofi Invest AM, Benjamin Louvet, in addition to the danger of speculation, the main risk of investing in gold would not be natural declines in the price, which would only have short-term consequences, but a faster increase in rates than expected: a new growth in real interest rates would make stocks and bonds become more attractive again than the safe haven asset, which does not generate returns.
