There is division on the 2026 budget. Two different Councils of Ministers could be convened to approve the budget planning document. The first on Tuesday 14 October, to address the latest divisions on the themes of the document to be sent to Brussels on 15 October. A second Council of Ministers, however, should be used to refine the measures to be included in the Budget Law. The most burning issues, which risk not finding a solution quickly, are those relating to the retirement age, the contribution payable by credit institutions and the issue of scrapping.
The majority position therefore appears fragmented. On the one hand the call for prudence and on the other onerous requests. Criticisms on different levels, from the lightest to the harshest, also come from employers’ associations and trade unions. The opposition, however, is very controversial, asking why growth should be penalized in favor of military spending.
The issues to be resolved: towards two urgent CDMs
A Council of Ministers has been scheduled for Tuesday 14 October which will have to respond to the doubts left unresolved by the majority summit held on Sunday. This was convened to define the measures to be included in the budget planning document to be sent to Brussels by 15 October.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has made it clear that it will have to be negotiated right down to the last minute and that the text will remain open, although a very light maneuver of 16 billion, equal to 0.7% of GDP, is still expected.
One thing is certain. The focus is on tax cuts for the middle class, on a package of measures for the family and on a few interventions for healthcare and housing. The goal is to save to increase military spending.
In fact, there are promises to be kept made at an international level, namely the target of growth first of 0.15% and then of 0.20% of annual GDP for defence.
With a dowry of just 16 billion euros, therefore, the Government is focusing on some main measures, while deeply felt issues such as those of the retirement age, intervention on banking institutions and scrapping quinquies remain open.
What is in the 2026 Budget?
The maneuver is not yet closed and we return to the table to try to untie the knots within the majority itself. In a climate of caution and uncertainty, the main expected measures are:
- cut of the second Irpef rate from 35% to 33% for incomes between 28,000 and 50,000 euros, the so-called middle class (cost 2.5 billion);
- scrapping of tax bills in nine years and 108 installments, but with stringent parameters and reserved for deserving taxpayers;
- increase in retirement age to be blocked, but not for everyone;
- package of up to one billion for families, from parental leave to mothers’ bonus;
- extension of the 50% renovation bonus on first homes;
- renewed IRES premium (cost between 400 and 500 million euros);
- funds for the national health system for new hires (costing 2.5 billion more than the 4 billion already allocated with the 2025 Budget Law).
The heart of the maneuver is precisely the cut of two points in the income tax for the middle class. This should allow you to reach around 440 euros more per year in your paycheck.
Furthermore, there is talk of a possible 10% taxation for overtime up to 4,000 euros per year. The unions, in particular the Uil, asked for the tax relief on contractual increases, but the discussion with them was not fruitful. Only the CISL is confident, declaring that the maneuver goes in the direction of their requests.
From the banks maximum 3 billion
The League is pushing for the contribution from the credit institutions, Forza Italia is perplexed by a withdrawal from the banks, while Fratelli d’Italia tries to mediate, but in any case it would require smaller commitments from the banking institutions.
The government-bank negotiations are therefore progressing with difficulty, also considering the internal divisions. The League’s objective was to obtain 5 billion euros from the banks, but if the deal were to close, it is very likely that it will be with a smaller commitment. An agreement could be found around 3 billion euros.
In any case, the negotiation is about numbers, not about intervention. If the League’s 5 billion are already considered not enough to make ends meet, neither are the 3 billion euros that could be reached. Precisely for this reason, there are also rumors of a contribution from insurance companies.
