The Council of Ministers approved the new Public finance documentthe first with the abbreviation DFP Instead of the old Def. Change of label, but also of ambitions: the economic frame indicated by the executive loses brilliance and adapts to a decidedly more opaque horizon.
The meeting at Palazzo Chigi lasted 45 minutes, enough to certify that growth forecasts will have to deal with a more severe realism. The text is expected in Parliament on Thursday for the usual formal passage.
Pil Italia growth 2025-2027: the new forecasts
“We have decided to adopt growth estimates aligned with those recently reduced by the Bank of Italy, therefore we have a real GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025, 0.8% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027, effectively halving the provision of the plan which was 1.2%” said the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti. A net cut to the initial ambitions, which reflects an international context not reassuring and an internal economy that struggles to gain traction.
The medium -term estimates also retain: the same MEF admits that The figures could worsen. For now, the effects of the rewriting of the PNRR are missing, which should be formalized by the end of May.
Deficit and public debt: updated estimates
Giorgetti communicated that The deficit will remain above the threshold of 3% in 2025to then return to the following two years. The Superbonus, after weighing down the accounts like a boulder, will begin to lose push. The technicians provide for a progressive return of the structural deficit: 1.3%, 1.6%, 1.9%, 1.7%and finally 1.5%in 2029.
No extraordinary chapter inserted in the document: the voices have already been packed inside the ordinary forecasts. On the debt front, it oscillates between 136.6% and 137.6%, with a peak in 2026 and a slight drop expected for the following year, thanks to the exhaustion effect of the building bonuses. No surprise, but not even space for illusions.
Defense expenditure and EU exceptional clause
The minister also faced the theme of military spending. According to Giorgetti, there are currently no changes: “The expenditure for the defense at the moment maintains the original orientation and trend”. Italy, he explained, is considered in line with the 2% threshold set in the NATO area, while reserving to discuss the criteria adopted in international locations.
As for the possible request to activate the National exceptional clause Compared to European indicators, the government hypothesizes to advance it by the end of April. This would imply the need for a strengthened vote in Parliament, to be carried out when the resolution will be examined on the new public finance document.
With regard to the pressure from Brussels to increase expenses in the defensive sector, the government takes time: Any choices will be evaluated later. To proceed beyond the current 2% threshold, a parliamentary revision would be needed through a budget deviation procedure.
PNRR revision and European economic prospects
Another open front is that linked to the revision of the national recovery and resilience plan. Giorgetti recalled that there are several options on the table, including Raffaele Fitto’s proposal onUse of cohesion funds and the possibility of setting aside a share of the projects related to the STEM disciplines. According to the minister, the goal will be achieved, even if the path is far from linear.
Future economic decisions will depend a lot on the European regulatory framework, with particular attention to the budget rules: “If a bestial recession happens compared to everything that is happening, someone will have to wonder if these rules are still current or not” said Giorgetti, on the sidelines of a question about the Reduction of IRPEF for the middle class. The minister also stressed that the new picture was outlined in a highly unstable context internationally, making the forecasts particularly uncertain even in the short term.
