In the 2026 budget law, how much money will Italy put into military spending? The answer is not trivial at all and, even if a series of information follows, it always seems that the number is too high, too low, never the same as the one said the previous day. Let’s try to clarify.
In the Council of Ministers held on Tuesday 14 October, there was no discussion of the budget plan, but of the budget plan (Dpb). The actual budget law will be illustrated on Thursday 16 October. The calendar was thus arranged to send the Dpb to Brussels precisely by October 15th.
In this document, 12 billion euros are committed for military spending, but it is about reaching 2.5% of GDP and not what was actually promised at NATO. How is this possible? The fact is that military expenditure is not just these and the increases are present in other programmatic documents, such as the multi-annual 2025-2027 specific Defense document.
And which, it should be underlined, is still different from the “Integrated Budget in a NATO perspective”. But let’s bring order to the information in our possession, however limited and increasingly less transparent it may be within Government documents.
Military spending in maneuver: the famous 12 billion more
The first figure that appears in the official declarations is that of the 12 billion euros more in military spending. This comes from the Public Finance Policy Document (DPFP) and the size of the increase is calculated starting from the possibility that Italy manages to exit the excessive deficit procedure imposed by the European Union.
Only in this case, in the three-year period 2026-2028, Italy will put around 12 billion euros more for military spending. Although the percentages emerge in the document, it is not clear where the funds needed for the increase will be taken from.
Here are the percentages:
- 0.15% of GDP in 2026;
- 0.3% of GDP in 2027;
- 0.5% of GDP in 2028.
What is the budget of the Ministry of Defense
Military spending, however, is not just “increasing”. The Ministry of Defense, in fact, has published the multi-year planning document 2025-2027, which is the specific document for Defense. For the current year the budget has a record figure of 31.2 billion euros, with an increase of +7.2% compared to the 29.1 billion of the previous year. By 2027, the figure will reach 31.7 billion euros.
But the Defense budget is not the same as that declared to NATO, which instead refers to the “NATO-style integrated budget” and which includes, as reported SkyTg24:
- the Defense budget, from which however the expenses for the Carabinieri are subtracted, except those relating to the deployable portion of the force. The total of this sum is 25.8 billion, 2.1 more than in 2024;
- the second component is made up of the resources provided by Mimit, aimed at supporting the institutional tasks of Defense (almost all dedicated to military investments). The total of these resources is equal to 3.316 billion, 1 billion more than in 2024;
- the third component is made up of MEF resources, reserved to support missions abroad. The total of this sum is equal to 1.345 billion, in line with 2024.
Money isn’t enough: let’s start researching
As reported by the Milex Observatory, the Multiannual Defense Planning Document (delivered on 8 October) underlines that 15.4 billion euros have been allocated to the armament and ammunition sector for the next 15 years. This figure is considered “insufficient”. For this reason, research and development plans are also aimed at, with two objectives: on the one hand to give greater strategic autonomy to the sector and on the other to guarantee an economic return to the country.
An example of this is the call for the National Military Research Plan (Pnrm), published by the Ministry of Defense for the presentation of research proposals with the aim of financing research and development projects focused on strategic areas for defence, encouraging technological innovation. The sectors of interest identified are:
- C2 and Multi-Domain Situational Awareness;
- space technologies;
- cyber;
- hypersonic and quantum;
- underwater, urban and cognitive warfare;
- artificial intelligence;
- communication networks and autonomous systems.
For further research and development plans, we will have to wait for the next national research programming, which currently closes its cycle that began in 2021 in 2027. The next plan will be influenced by Horizon Europe. This prepares a structural change in the next financing cycle 2028-2034.
In fact, for the first time in over forty years, the European Commission is aiming for projects with both civil and military applications. The turning point reveals a Europe that wants to strengthen its technological and defensive capabilities in an unstable geopolitical context. It seems that the European Innovation Council (EIC) will also be strengthened with a tripled budget and with a new model inspired by the US agency Darpa. There is also talk of greater support for high-risk start-ups in the defense and security field.
Italy’s plans: new technologies
The European Union is thinking about developing new technologies and Italy is no different. In the military field we look at naval forces, land forces and air forces. As for the naval forces, as the site explains Geopolitics.infostudy programs and developments of new technologies for naval units stand out. There is talk of the construction of a new generation aircraft carrier, but also of the launch of the “Deep strike and anti-ship systems” program, which provides for the possibility of equipping Italian naval units with land attack cruise missiles.
Then there are the land forces, where funding stands out for the modernization of the 125 Ariete tanks and the increase in funds for the development programs of a family of armored vehicles (after Leonardo’s break with Knds).
Finally, the air forces, which see the acquisition of:
- 6 Maritime Multi Mission Aircraft (M3A);
- maritime patrol aircraft;
- anti-submarine.
Added to these are the sums for ammunition mentioned above, which for the first time are quite large.
Over 130 billion in 15 years for weapons
Again according to Milex, although the Multiannual Programmatic Document for Defense has reduced its transparency, the overall value of the investment programs planned for the next 15 years should be around 140 billion euros. In the calculation, Milex faced many problems in the references of previous costs, which have disappeared and which made it possible to follow the multi-year evolution of individual weapon systems and evaluate their actual financial impact.
The new document, however, only briefly explains how the GDP threshold required by the NATO target will be reached, while the details useful for transmitting military spending counts to international organizations and research institutes such as OSCE and SIPRI have been eliminated.
In any case, Milex managed to reconstruct the overall value and therefore we can show a table that sees over 130 billion euros allocated to weapon systems and 9 billion euros for military infrastructure. Of this sum, 35 billion euros have already been allocated and consolidated by previous budget laws. In the coming years, investments will instead be made in air, land and naval vehicles, privileged compared to previous years.
As Milex points out, the counts refer to programming “under current legislation”, i.e. net of the 12 billion euro increase in defense spending foreseen for the next three years in the public finance planning document. From these the following table emerges:
| Investment sectors in the DPP (forecast 2025-2039) | billions of euros |
|---|---|
| Space systems | 1.44 |
| Land vehicles | 11.10pm |
| Maritime vehicles | 3.30pm |
| Air vehicles | 46.60 |
| Armament and ammunition | 3.40pm |
| Digitization and infostructure | 5.90 |
| Research and development | 1.50 |
| Support and maintenance | 15.70 |
| Production capabilities | 0.09 |
| Cyber warfare | 1.91 |
| Unmanned systems | 3.20 |
| Total for shipowners | 130.14 |
| Infrastructure | 9.10 |
| total investments over the next 15 years | 139.24 |
