The government is preparing to rewrite public finances with the Defwhich takes the measures to a complicated present. The text, expected today 9 April, in Council of Ministers of 17:30, is the result of weeks of comparison between the Ministry of Economy and the Parliamentary Budget Office.
The estimates on GDP they come cut With a gap strokes: the growth scheduled for 2025 stops at 0.6%, in line with the projections of Bankitalia and Confindustria, but far from the +1.2% contained in the structural plan of the budget presented in the autumn.
There is no reference to the effects of US rates, no figure on military spending, no direction on the next moves.
The macroeconomic forecasts of the government and comparison data
The downward revision came after weeks of work between MEF and parliamentary budget office, in a context aggravated by the new wave of duties And from the press conference of the US President Donald Trump, who triggered chain reactions on the world markets.
The final result reflects one prudent linealso designed to protect public finances from possible further shocks. As happens usual, these predictions are also accompanied by a high level of uncertainty and by tendentially oriented risks.
Public accounts and stability pact: what changes with the new EU rules
The new European rules allow some margins, but do not authorize head shots. For now, No substantial opening from the Commission: every extra euro will have to find its coverage or pass under derogation. However, the numbers hold, at least on paper: the 2024 deficit closes better than expected, the deficit/GDP ratio should slide just below 3.2%, and the debt also moves in the same direction.
The Def, faithful to the new lexicon of the EU governance, will only include theUpdate of the structural planwithout concessions to the requests of a programmatic framework. A more complete version it could arrive in fall. Meanwhile, no corrective maneuver is needed: the trend of primary spending (net of interest and cyclical fluctuations) remains the reference parameter. And for now, that parameter holds.
Defense, duties and international tensions: the great absentees of the Def
The photograph of the national economy, therefore, continues to return a static image. Without a programmatic picture and with a estimated growth at 0.6%the economy and finance document is limited to recording the temperature of the economy without proposing therapies.
A question mark still concerns the defense releases: The calculations have not been concludedwhile in parallel the parliamentary majority discusses a unitary motion against the European Plan “READINESS 2030”.
The League presented a proposal to be brought to all municipal councils and in the community for curb the strengthening of armaments. Sources close to the Carroccio explain that it is “a base of comparison with the allies to reach a common position”. The text does not refer direct to the REARMO project, but reiterates the support for Ukraine “For all the time necessary”, however, hoping for a rapid diplomatic solution of the conflict.
It is not excluded that, in the Council of Ministers convened for today at 17:30, this position is also discussed. On the agenda there is also a bill for extend the delegation relating to the tax reformwhich includes the question of tax jurisdiction.
