In June 2025 theinflation In Italy it is Back to go up Slightly, reaching 1.7% on an annual basis, from 1.6% of May, and to +0.2% on a monthly basis, according to the temporary data released by Istat.
The numbers show substantial stability: on the one hand there is the acceleration of prices in the food sector and services related to free time and transport, on the other hand there is the braking of energy prices.
Inflation driven by food and transport
THE food goods they continue to represent one of the main ones inflation engines It is one of the main critical issues for consumers.
The price index of goods not processed food recorded acceleration from +3.5% to +4.2%, while those of worked assets they climbed from +2.7% to +3%. The increases on an annual basis for:
- fresh or chilled fruit (+7.1%);
- meats (+4.5%).
On the other hand, the prices of the vegetables fresh (+1.2%). Also the services relating to transport they mark a growing dynamic: +2.9% Tendential (from +2.6% of May) and a +1.1% on a monthly basis.
The strong increase in the maritime transport (+17.9% per year) who with the holidays on the doors sweats cold to those who go on vacation by taking their ferry car, together with the increase in transport on street (+1.9%) and services connected to private vehicles.
These elements also determine the increase in so -called “basic” inflation which rises to 2.1% (from 1.9%). By basic inflation, we remember, we mean the purified one from the most volatile components such as energy and fresh food.
Braking energy
The slowdown of inflation is strongly influenced by the decline in prices energywhich arrives every year upon arrival of the first hot ones, both regulated and unregulated. The regulated energy goods, while remaining on high levels, descend from +29.3% of May to +22.7%, with the electricity of the market protected in braking ( +39.9% from +46.5%). The unregulated energy goods instead expand the flexion (-4.6%by -4.3%), driven by the drop in electricity prices on the free market (-9%) and natural gas (-4.7%).
Shopping cart and perceived inflation
In June there is a resumption of the so -called “shopping cart”, which includes food goods, for the house and the person, with an annual growth of +3.1% (from +2.7% of May). In parallel, high purchasing products accelerate from +1.5% to +2.1%, fueling a higher perceived inflation than the official one.
The position of the Codacons
According to Codacons, the increase in the inflation rate on an annual basis translates into a greater disbursement of +559 euros per year for the type type and up to +761 euros for a nucleus with two children. The theme becomes even more critical if you look at the tourist sector, which in the pre-summer period highlights an acceleration of prices:
- national flights +38.1%;
- ferries +19.6%;
- Holiday packages +8.7%;
- Hotels +2.9%;
- extra-hotel structures +5.8%.
The prospects
The inflation acquired for 2025 is already equal to +1.4% for the general index and +1.8% for the basic component, suggesting a tendency to moderation. However, risks related to the return of tensions on food and services remain. The harmonized index of consumer prices (IPCA), useful for comparisons at European level, confirms the variation on an annual basis of 1.7%, stable compared to May.
