Inflation is slowing down significantly again. In October 2025, the consumer price index for the entire community (NIC) drops to +1.2% on an annual basis. Down compared to +1.6% in September and slightly below the value at the end of 2024. This was announced by Istat, confirming the preliminary estimate. On a monthly basis, there was a decline of 0.3%.
The reasons for the decline
The deceleration is mainly driven by the collapse in regulated energy prices, which went from a growth of +13.9% in September to -0.5% on an annual basis. Added to this is the marked slowdown in unprocessed foods (such as fruit and vegetables), whose annual growth fell from +4.8% to +1.9%.
The slowdown is also being felt on the daily spending of families. The increase in prices of high-frequency purchasing products and the so-called “shopping cart” decelerates, going from +2.6% to +2.1% and from +3.1% to +2.1% respectively. Even underlying inflation (the indicator that excludes energy and fresh food to measure the more stable price dynamics) marks a slight step backwards, falling from +2.0% to +1.9%.
The performance of the sectors
Not all sectors, however, follow the downward trend. For example, the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services are accelerating (from +3.1% to +3.3%). This contributes to widening the gap between the increase in prices of services (+2.6%) and that of goods (+0.2%).
- Hospitality and catering services +3.9%;
- Other goods and services +3.2%;
- Food products and non-alcoholic drinks +2.5%;
- Alcoholic beverages and tobacco +2.0%;
- Education +1.5%;
- Health services and health expenditure +1.5%;
- Clothing and footwear +1.0%;
- Recreation, entertainment and culture +0.5%;
- Furniture, household items and services +0.3%;
- Transport +0.2%;
- Housing, water, electricity and fuel –1.7%;
- Communications –5.1%
But food products are still experiencing increases
If the inflation rate drops to 1.2% in October, food prices continue to experience critical issues, with the retail prices of some consumer products still recording double-digit increases. The president of Assoutenti Gabriele Melluso explains:
Despite the decline in inflation, the price trend in the food sector continues to be worrying. In October, beef increased by +8%, veal by +7.5%; eggs recorded +7.4%, cheeses and dairy products +6.5% with peaks of +8.2% for mature cheeses, butter +6.6%, rice +4.2%. For other products the increases are even in double digits: chocolate rises by +10.1%, coffee by +20.6%, cocoa by +21.9%. A situation that must be addressed by the government as soon as possible: food is a primary expenditure item that families cannot do without. Now, in view of the approach of Christmas and increased consumption by families, maximum vigilance is needed on food prices, also through the intervention of Mister Prices, to prevent the holidays from resulting in a blow to the wallet.
Codacons: “+387 euros on an annual basis for shopping”
The alarm is also raised by Codacons, which estimates, due to the drop in inflation to 1.2% in October, an annual expenditure of the typical family of +387 euros per year, which rises to +548 euros in the case of a family with two children.
The slowdown in inflation is a positive thing for families, but it should be underlined that the trend in energy goods is driving the decline in the national rate. In fact, Codacons reports that the situation is improving in terms of energy bills, but for some items prices are still rising sharply in October:
the price lists of food products and non-alcoholic drinks are growing at more than double the speed of the average inflation rate and register a +2.5% on year, equal to an increased expense of 232 euros per year for a family with two children.
Rates in the catering and hospitality services sector then surge, with increases on average of +3.9% compared to October 2024, concludes Codacons.
