Italian inflation slows in July, but less than initially indicated. Istat has revised the definitive data upwards: consumer prices increase by 2.9% on an annual basis and by 0.3% compared to June, against the +2.8% annual and +0.2% monthly of the preliminary estimate released on 31 July. In June inflation was 3%.
The revision makes the picture more complex than the first photograph of the month. On the one hand, fresh food and some energy are slowing down, on the other electricity and, above all, gas continue to run in the protected market, while some services linked to transport, tourism and holidays also increase.
The definitive data are contained in the new Istat report on consumer prices for July 2026. The previous estimate, already analyzed by QuiFinanza in the article on July inflation and increases in electricity and gas prices, indicated, however, a rate of 2.8%.
July inflation revised from 2.8% to 2.9%
The main novelty of the definitive data is precisely the revision of one tenth compared to the preliminary estimate.
The national consumer price index NIC rises by 0.3% on June and by 2.9% compared to July 2025. Inflation therefore slows down compared to 3% in June, but the drop is more limited than initially estimated.
However, underlying inflation, calculated excluding energy and fresh food, remains stable at 1.6%. Net of energy products alone, the rate drops from 1.9% to 1.8%.
Inflation acquired for the whole of 2026 reaches 2.7%: it means that, even if prices remained stable at July levels for all the following months, the average growth of the index for the whole year would still be equal to 2.7%.
Protected gas +21.8%, electricity +9.7%
The heaviest chapter continues to be the energy one.
Overall, energy goods are slowing down from +13% to +11.6% per year, but two very different dynamics are hidden behind the average. Unregulated energy sectors slowed down to +11.4%, while regulated ones accelerated sharply from 9.2% to 14.8%.
Above all, the drivers are the tariffs for city gas and natural gas in the protected market, which rose by 21.8% compared to a year earlier and by 8.5% in the month of July alone. Electricity in the protected market, however, increases by 9.7% per year and by 4.5% per month.
On the free market, electricity still records an annual +13.9%, while gas slows to +7.4%. The data comes at a time of strong pressure on bills.
Petrol and diesel are slowing down, but the July figure has two speeds
Fuels also continue to cost significantly more than a year ago, although they are slowing down.
Diesel for transport goes from +21.6% to +18.8% per year, while petrol slows down from +10.3% to +8%. Other fuels fell from +8.4% to +5.9%.
Istat underlines, however, an important peculiarity: the monthly average incorporates a drop in prices in the first part of July and a subsequent acceleration in the second, coinciding with the resumption of the conflict between the United States and Iran. Consequently, the average data does not necessarily reflect the price level encountered by motorists in the last days of the month.
Shopping cart at 1%, but frequent purchases rise by 3.4%
On the food front, however, a more favorable signal arrives.
The prices of food, home and personal care goods, the so-called “shopping cart”, slow down to 1% per year, from +1.3% in June. It is also a correction compared to the preliminary estimate in July, which still indicated +1.3%.
Unprocessed foods slowed down from 4.4% to 3.6%, also thanks to the decline in fruit and nuts, which went from +1.4% to -0.7% per year and recorded -4.8% compared to June.
For families there is another indicator to keep in mind. High purchase frequency products, i.e. those bought most often and, therefore, most perceived in the daily balance, continue to increase by 3.4% per year, albeit slowing down from 3.9%.
More expensive holidays: accommodation and air travel rise
Summer can also be seen in the services.
Prices for restaurants and accommodation services accelerate from 2.9% to 3.4% annually. More specifically, accommodation services rose from +2.2% to +4%, while in the month of July alone they increased by 0.5%.
Transport services are also accelerating. The most evident data concerns air transport of passengers, which remains less expensive than a year earlier (-5.6%), but records a jump of 10.1% compared to June.
Overall, services increased by 2.7% per year, compared to 2.6% in June, while goods slowed from 3.3% to 3.2%.
Where inflation is highest: Reggio Calabria reaches 4%
The final report also allows us to see how inflation changes in the area.
Among the regions, price growth exceeds the national average in Calabria, Campania, Puglia, Sicily, Lazio, Sardinia and Liguria. It is, however, equal to 2.9% in Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Umbria and Abruzzo and lower in the other regions.
Among the regional capitals and large cities considered by Istat, the highest rate is recorded in Reggio Calabria, with 4%, followed by Naples and Catania at 3.4%. At the other extreme are Florence, at 2.2%, and Aosta, at 2.1%.
It is important to point out that this ranking measures the speed with which prices grow, not the absolute level of the cost of living: a city with higher inflation is not necessarily the most expensive city in Italy.
FOI Index at 2.8%: what it means for rents
With the definitive data also comes the FOI index, used for various monetary revaluations, including adjustments to rents when expected.
In July the FOI, net of tobacco, reached 103.1, with an increase of 0.3% compared to June and 2.8% on an annual basis. Istat specifies that this is the index used, among other things, for the periodic adjustment of rent and allowances due to the separated spouse.
However, this does not mean that all rents automatically increase by 2.8%: it is necessary to check what the contract provides. The Revenue Agency clarifies this on flat rate tax.
The definitive July data therefore leaves a double message: general inflation is slowing down, but the pressure on family budgets has not disappeared.
