In 2025 the gold returned to shine like never before. In a world marked by geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation and increasingly aggressive monetary strategies, the yellow metal has broken new records, recording, according to the latest data published by UBSa increase of over 30% from the beginning of the year.
But the question that every investor asks today is: how much can gold still go up? And above all how much can those who choose to invest us now?
What is pushing gold to the historic highs
The gold rally is not the result of the case, but of a set of structural and economic factors. First of all, there is the strong request by investors, who see effective protection against the volatility of markets and the erosion of purchasing power caused by inflation.
Secondly, geopolitical tensions have increased the attractiveness of an asset that has always been considered “well -refuge”. And if the increase in inflation continues to worry, especially for the impact of duties, then gold becomes an almost natural choice to protect capital.
Finally, there is a significant figure that deserves attention: the growing interest of banks power plants. In 2025 it is expected that the official gold purchases will reach the 1,000 tonsincreasing compared to the 950 tons estimated previously.
It is a strong signal of de-dollarization of the currency reserves: more and more sovereign financial institutions choose to reduce dependence on the American dollar, focusing on gold as a tool of diversification and stability.
ETF and record purchases
After three years of deducing, ETF funds (Exchange Traded Funds) on the gold they are recording a surge in the afflusted. This means that even retail investors are returning en masse on gold, attracted by historical performances and prospects of further growth.
The result? 2025 promises to be one of the stronger years ever as regards the investment flows on gold.
According to UBS analysts, the precious metal has already exceeded – in real terms – the peak of the era of the oil shock of the 70s. Yet, if we consider the value of the gold compared to the global offer of money, it still remains below the historical tops. This leaves room for further revaluation in the medium-long term.
In light of this scenario, the UBS houses base is clear: objective price a 3,500 dollars the ounce by the end of the year, compared to the approximately 3,454 current dollars. It seems little, but even this small final waste represents again opportunity In a context in which other assets, such as actions or bonds, show less certain and more risky returns.
But be careful: the real gold potential goes beyond the short term. If the purchases of purchases by ETFs and central banks continues in the coming years, and if the macroeconomic tensions should remain high, it is not unrealistic at all unrealistic to assume that the price of gold can exceed $ 4,000 the ounce in the next 24/36 months.
How much an investor can earn
Suppose that an investor purchased gold at the beginning of the year, when the price was around $ 2,650 the ounce. With the current values, around $ 3,454, the profit is already more than 30% in just four months. In practical terms:
An investment of 10,000 euros would today have a value of over 13,000 euros.
If the 3,500 dollars target was reached, it would be a 32% return on the year. But if the most ambitious forecasts were made, with a gold at 4,000 dollars, the performance would rise to about 51% compared to the levels of the beginning of 2025.
Even an increase of 10-15% from here at the end of the year represents a result of absolute importance, if compared with the uncertainties that weigh on other financial sectors.
So, It is better to invest in gold Today?
The answer is yes.
As we have seen, it still has growth margins and offers potentially very interesting returns even for those who decide to enter the market now.
The combination of inflation, geopolitical uncertainties, institutional demand and growing interest of private investors creates fertile ground for further rise.
For those looking for concrete protection in an unstable context, or want to grasp a last bullish leg, gold remains one of the more promising assets of 2025.
As always, however, the key lies in balance your walletwithout exposing too much, but not even staying out of an opportunity that, at least for this year, still seems to have a lot to offer.
