The next Budget Law begins to take shape: the DPFP (Public Finance programming document approved by the Council of Ministers on October 2 and now expected in Parliament and Brussels, outlines the outlines of a maneuver of about 16 billion euros.
Among the most anticipated measures are the cutting of the IRPEF, to complete the fiscal reform desired by the center-right, but also interventions on health and retouches to the bonuses.
3% deficit and moderate growth GDP
A figure equal to 0.7 percentage points of GDP is at stake, which the government will finance through a combination of cuts to public spending (about 60%) and new revenues.
The updated macroeconomic picture confirms a trajectory of prudence: 3% deficit in 2025, downhill at 2.8% in 2026 and up to 2.3% in 2028. In the meantime, the growth of GDP is estimated at 0.5% for 2025 and 0.7% in 2026, a “solid” trend also in the absence of the expansive effect of the maneuver.
Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti reiterated the “firm and prudent responsibility” line, underlining the need to guarantee “the sealing of public finance in compliance with the new European rules”, without renouncing the support for workers and families.
FISCO, IRPEF and Middle Even
The tax chapter remains central: after the structural reform of 2024, the executive aims to a new IRPEF cut, aimed at medium-low income. The most accredited hypothesis provides for the reduction of the second rate from 33% to 32% for income up to 50,000 euros, with the aim of supporting internal demand and lightening the tax burden on employee workers.
There are also new family deductions related to the family quotient, a measure that would favor numerous nuclei and medium-low incomes. In parallel, the government does not exclude a new scrapping of the tax collection files, even if in a more selective version than in the past. The League invokes a scrapping Urbi et orbi, while Fdi and Fi brake.
For healthcare new funds and hires
Another pillar of the maneuver will be the refinancing of the National Health Fund, with an estimated increase between 2 and 3 billion euros compared to the 4 already provided for by the previous budget law. The plan includes 27,000 new hires between doctors and nurses, a strengthening of territorial medicine and the increase in the spending roof for drugs.
The government thus aims to respond to the structural critical issues of the health system, aggravated in recent years by the pandemic and the lack of staff.
Families and births: what happens to the Mamme Bonus
The 40 -euro working mothers of 40 euros per month is also confirmed and enhanced, which will become structural from 2025. Next to this measure, the birth bonus and the refinancing of discounts on gas bills for large families and in economic difficulty is expected.
The mobility account is also coming, an incentive to encourage the use of public transport and lighten the costs of moving for families.
Companies and investments: reward IRES and transition 5.0
On the production front, the reward IRES is confirmed, with a 4% reduction in the tax for companies that reinvest profits in employment and innovation. A fund of approximately 4 billion deriving from the “Transition 5.0” plan will also remain active, remodeled to encourage the digitization and competitiveness of SMEs.
There is also a social plan for the home, which will mobilize European resources of the social plan for the climate (9.3 billion) to support access to sustainable accommodation and calmed prices.
Cuts and reorganization of tax discounts
The coverage of 16 billion will come 60% from shopping interventions. A substantial part will be guaranteed by the reorganization of the Tax ExpendiTures, the over 600 bonuses and tax discounts in force today, and by a possible update of the cadastral estimates for properties subject to building bonuses.
Finally, a temporary “solidarity contribution” for banks is not excluded, inspired by the model already experienced in 2023.
Defense and debt
In the three-year period 2026-2028 the DPFP provides for a progressive increase in defense expenditure, equal to 0.15% of GDP in 2026, 0.3% in 2027 and 0.5% in 2028, for a total of about 12 billion. A growth that, specifies the government, remains conditioned at the exit of Italy by the excessive deficit procedure.
As for public debt, estimated at 137.8% of GDP in 2026, should be reduced to 136.4% in 2028, also thanks to the gradual exhaustion of the effects of the Superbonus.
