“The attack wins the games, the defense the championships” is a phrase attributed to the historic Sir coach. Alex Ferguson, in office at Manchester United from 1986 to 2013. The most winning coach in the history of football with his 49 titles won was convinced that defending his door from opposing attacks was more important than score a goal. Curious for the coach of some champions such as Cristiano Ronaldo, Wayne Rooney and Eric Cantona. But is this ideology only a commonplace or does it have a solid statistical foundation? Let’s try to answer this question by analyzing the numbers of the last 30 Serie A championships, from the 1994-1995 season (the first of the 3 points era) to the 2024-25 season won by Antonio Conte’s Naples. Let’s start by saying that, although it is not an exact formula, the data show that having a solid defense represents a concrete and decisive advantage for the final victory. In an era dominated by advanced statistics (and by surveys on the field with GPS devices) such as Expected Goals (XG) e Heatmapsin order to conduct a coherent historical analysis we will base on the most traditional data, relating the victory of the championship with the Best attack (plus goals scored) and the best defense (less goals conceded) – Data from Fbref, site specialized in football statistics.
What the last 30 seasons of Serie A tell us
To conduct our analysis on the role of defense and attack in football we take, as mentioned, in consideration the last 30 seasons of the Serie A. The starting point is the first season of the history of the top Italian championship in which a victory started to be worth 3 points in the standings, the 1994/95 championship won by Juventus with 73 points in front of Lazio and Parma, both stopped at 63 points. In recent years, only 6 different teams have raised the trophy: Juventus (15), Inter (7), Milan (5), Naples (2), Rome (1) and Lazio (1). These years have been characterized by two important “domains”, the first in chronological order is that of Inter, winner for 5 consecutive years from 2005/2006 to 2009/2010 and the second are the 9 successes in line of Juventus from 2012 to 2020. For a methodological choice, and without going into the merits of the procedures, the 2005/06 season was excluded from the analysis, since the final ranking was subject to subsequent official changes.
Data analysis: the weight of the defense and the role of the attack
We come to the point, is it true that “the attack wins the games, the defense the championships”? According to statistics we can say that Sir. Alex Ferguson is right, having a solid and impenetrable defense increases the probability of success. In the 3 championships analyzed, 13 times the Italian champion team had the best defense of the championship (43%), on 3 occasions (Juventus 1997/1998, Rome 2000/2001, Inter 2006/2007) triumphed the team with the best attack (10%), in 9 seasons the victory was the result of an absolute domain, with the champion team that was changing both in defense and in attack (30%) and in the remaining 5 editions to graduate. Italian champion was a team that had neither the most solid defense nor the most prolific attack (17%).
Looking at the more general picture, 22 times (equal to about 73%) The team that raised the trophy was also the one with the least beaten defense. And in 5 more times, he had the second best defense. The best defense won the championship for 12 consecutive seasons, from 2007/08 to 2018/19, a strip interrupted by Juventus coached by Maurizio Sarri who in 2020 raised the cup without having the best offensive department or the best defensive department. The trend of the winning defenses is taken from the following season, in fact, in the last 5 editions the teams that submit less goals have returned to the highest step of the podium.
In light of the data, the link between the title and the best attack is less solid as only in 3 vintages triumphed the team that had only the best attack.
The examples on the football field: the symbolic seasons
We have seen from the data that having a good defensive department can help in the success of a season. An emblematic case of the defense that wins the championships is the last season played (24/25) won by Antonio Conte’s Naples. The Azzurri brought the 4th Scudetto of their history to the Campania capital with a single point in the ranking plus (82) of the rivals of Inter led by Simone Inzaghi. The interesting data concern precisely those on the goals conceded and scored goals. Napoli, in fact, scored 59 goals by closing the ranking of the most prolific attacks in 6th place. And the defense? Conte’s team suffered only 27 goals from the opponents in 38 games, a fact that allowed him to earn the title of best defense of the championship in front of Rome (35 goals conceded).
Although the data show that a great defense is often a prerequisite for the victory, it is not an exact equation. The factors in the field are manifold: calendar, accidents, moments of form and even fate can overturn the predictions. The 2000/01 season is the perfect example of a championship won thanks to a formidable attack. There Rome by Fabio Capello triumphed despite not having the best defense (33 goals conceded, 3rd of the championship), but being able to count on the best Attack with 68 goals thanks to an iconic trident formed by Gabriel Batistuta (20 goals), Francesco Totti (13 goals) e Vincenzo Montella (14 goals).
There have also been seasons in which the champion team triumphed without having the best defense or the best attack, but perhaps demonstrating the best balance between the departments. For example, in 1999/2000it was the Lazio to graduate Italian champion with 72 points; His attack (64 goals) was exceeded by that of Milan (65) and his defense (33 goals conceded) was clearly beaten by that, almost impenetrable, of Juventus (20).
These cases show that, beyond the individual statistics, the victory of a championship is often the result or the ability to maximize one’s potential or the right alchemy between the departments.
