Goldman Sachs’ forecast, according to which the dollar/yen gearbox could reach Quota 140 During this year, it raises fundamental questions for investors and currency market operators.
It would be a appreciation of about 7% Compared to current levels, but what does this prediction really mean for investors? And above all, is it the right time to focus on a currency that could benefit from a rapidly evolving economic context?
Yen-Dollaro gearbox, Goldman Sachs’ forecast
According to Goldman Sachs analysts, Yen could earn ground thanks to a combination of factors in the coming months. First, the growing Economic uncertainty in the United Statesfueled by fears of a recession linked to internal policies of Donald Trump and an unfavorable commercial context, pushes investors to Rifugio assets like the Japanese currency. And this, in turn, could favor a re -evaluation of the Yen than the dollar, traditionally more volatile.
In addition, these forecasts are closely related to expectations on Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (Fed), that is, the decisions that the Central Bank of the United States will take on interest rates. The Fed plays a key role in the global economy, and its decisions very much influence the value of the dollar. If the Fed raises the rates, the dollar generally tends to strengthen itself, while if you lower them, the dollar weakens.
In the specific case, Goldman Sachs provides that, given the uncertain growth of the American economy, the Fed could decide to Reduce interest rates more than initially expected, making the dollar less attractive for investors, since yields on assets called in dollars (like the United States government bonds) would become less interesting compared to other investments. This would weaken the dollar even more.
Investing in the Yen: risks and opportunities
Is optimism on Japanese Yen justified? Economic uncertainty plays a central role in this dynamic. The commercial war between the United States and China, the difficulties related to protectionist policies e global political instability They are all unknowns that could influence the trend of exchange rates. However, if the macroeconomic data, in particular those relating to the US labor market, should confirm an economic slowdown, the most secure asset demand, such as The Yen could growfeeding a bullish push towards the change of 140.
For investors, the prospect of an appreciation of the Yen at 140 might seem attractive. A 7% gain is definitely interesting, but The risk is equally high. As always, in the world of currencies, the change depends on multiple variables, often unpredictable. Focusing on the return to 140 could in fact prove to be a risky bet, especially if the dollar should surprise with a greater resilience than expected.
Furthermore, the effectiveness of the Japanese monetary policy. If the yen should appreciate too quickly (i.e. if its value went up too much compared to other currencies, such as the dollar), this could penalize Japanese exportswhich are a fundamental pillar of the Japanese economy, since many of its main companies (such as Toyota, Sony and Panasonic) depend on sales abroad. A stronger Yen makes Japanese products more expensive for foreign consumers, reducing the competitiveness of Japanese goods in international markets. In other words, if a Japanese car becomes more expensive for American or European consumers due to the strengthening of the Yen, Japanese companies could see a reduction in sales abroad.
For this reason, the Bank of Japan He is very careful not to let his currency appreciate too quickly.
To understand if the appreciation of the Yen around 140 will be a too ambitious reality or prediction, investors will have to keep an eye on the Economic developments in the United States and Japanas well as the future moves of the Fed.
