Two years after the attacks of 7 October 2023, in which 1200 Israeli civilians were killed, today 9 October 2025 a ceasefire agreement was signed between Israel and Hamas and the acceptance of a first phase of the peace agreement. The negotiations took place in Sharm el-Sheik, Egypt, and saw Donald Trump’s United States, Egypt, Turkey and Qatar as mediators, a country that has been at the center of mediation between Hamas, Israel and the United States for years. The agreement, as specified by Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, was approved with ratification by the Israeli government.
What does the first phase of the agreement between Israel and Hamas entail?
Of the 20 points that form the full text of the agreement, the agreement reached in the first phase concerns four fundamental ones:
- Release of the living Israeli hostages – around 20 – and the bodies of those killed, many of whom have yet to be located. The total is around 48 Israeli hostages who are expected to be released in the next 72 hours, by Monday.
- Release of Palestinian prisoners present in Israeli prisons: the total agreed upon is 1950 prisoners, including 250 life prisoners and over 1700 prisoners, arrested after 7 October, and never subjected to trial. For every deceased Israeli hostage released, 15 deceased Palestinian hostages will be released.
- The entry of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip – approximately 400 trucks – through 5 crossings. In particular, according to the text of the agreement, the aid will be consistent with the provisions of the agreement of 19 January 2025, later violated by Israel with the resumption of air strikes. Also included in this point are the rehabilitation of infrastructure (water, electricity, sewage), the reopening of hospitals and the sending of the necessary equipment to remove rubble and open roads.
- A lasting and permanent ceasefire: The Israeli government has announced that the ceasefire in Gaza will come into force within 24 hours of the Council of Ministers meeting.
- The almost total withdrawal of Israeli troops from 70% of the Gaza Strip. On this aspect it is important to specify that the precise details of the withdrawal of Israeli troops have not yet been detailed. It is planned to position the Israeli army along certain agreed security lines, which will be under international supervision.
The Rafah crossing and the Philadelphia corridor
The withdrawal of Israeli military forces does not appear to involve the Rafah crossing with Egypt, a crucial hub both for the entry of humanitarian aid and for the control of people entering and exiting the Gaza Strip. For example, the thousands of displaced Palestinians who were evacuated and forced to flee, mainly to Egypt, would now like to return to their homes.
According to the text of the agreement, the opening of the Rafah crossing in both directions will be subject to the same mechanism implemented in the agreement of January 19, 2025, according to which Israel will allow injured Palestinians to leave the Gaza Strip to receive treatment and will open the Rafah crossing with Egypt seven days after the start of the implementation of the first phase.
Furthermore, in the border area between Gaza and Egypt, the so-called Philadelphia Corridor, the Israeli army will reduce its presence and then withdraw completely no later than the 50th day after the entry into force of the agreement.
The other points of the peace plan for Gaza
The full text of the peace plan, presented by Donald Trump at the White House on September 29, includes 20 points in total, the implementation of which will be addressed gradually after the signing of the first phase of the agreement.
The thorniest points of the agreement concern the path for the recognition of the State of Palestine through a government of technocrats and the Palestinian National Authority, with the presidency of Maḥmūd ʿAbbās, also known as Abū Māzen, a government in which no Hamas spokesperson will be able to be involved.
The second aspect concerns the total end of the occupation regime currently present in Gaza and denounced by numerous international bodies, including the International Court of Justice in the ruling of 19 July 2024. Another important point concerns the dismantling of Hamas.
The text of the agreement in fact provides that «Gaza will be a terrorism-free and deradicalized zone that will not pose a threat to its neighbors» and in another point of the text specifies that «Hamas members who commit to peaceful coexistence and dismantle their weapons will be granted amnesty while those wishing to leave Gaza will be granted safe passage to their host countries».
What could be the future of Gaza and Palestine: possible scenarios
What is being asked after the announcement of the ceasefire is: what will be the future of Gaza and Palestine after the Israeli withdrawal? Will some sort of international peacekeeping force be created in Gaza? How will it be administered? Will there be an independent and free State of Palestine?
The scenarios could be the following:
- As already happened after the announcement of the agreement on January 19, 2025, the ceasefire may not be respected by Israel, interrupting the implementation of the agreement. During last night’s negotiations, in this regard, Hamas asked for guarantees that Israel will not resume fighting following the release of the hostages, as has already happened in the past. The ceasefire could therefore only be temporary. Within the ceasefire agreement, the role of Donald Trump and his strong involvement in putting pressure not only on Hamas, but also on Israel, perhaps in view of the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize for which he is aiming, must be underlined.
- According to the initial Peace Plan, presented by the US President, Gaza will be governed by a technocratic, Palestinian committee that will be responsible for managing public services and municipal administrations in Gaza. The Committee will be made up of international and Palestinian experts, with the supervision of the Peace Council, an international transition body which will include Heads of State and Government, including President Trump himself and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. It will be this Council that will deal with financing and investments for the reconstruction of Gaza, at least until the political reform of the Palestinian National Authority. The scenario that lies ahead and that some fear is that of a partition and a continuation of the foreign occupation of the Palestinian territories, albeit under international guidance.
- The international recognition of the Palestinian state and the end of the occupation regime. One scenario that is certainly the most distant at the moment concerns the end of the occupation regime in which the Palestinian population lives with the recognition and creation of the State of Palestine, based on the principle of self-determination of peoples – as enshrined in the United Nations Charter and the Atlantic Charter – in full respect of international law and human rights. From a political point of view, it will be necessary to understand how the political forces of the Hamas and Fatah parties will dialogue with each other with the guidance of the Palestinian National Authority, with a view to creating a free and independent Palestinian state. But as international law states: «Each State has the right to exclusively exercise governmental power over its territorial community, i.e. over the individuals within its territory. Therefore it is free in the forms and ways of its exercise».
