THE’Italian export He risks resenting new international tensions, as evidenced by an analysis of the Study Center of Confartigianato.
From the study it shows that the conflicts in progress in Middle Eastas well as the war between Russia And Ukraine and the persistent tensions between India And Pakistan they put at risk 61.4 billion Euro of Italian exports, as well as almost half of our supply energy.
SMEs are the most exposed
Exports to 25 countries involved in wars or instability situations represent 9.8% of Italy’s exports, in total.
The danger is not only theoretical: these are markets in which Made in Italy is strongly present with high intensity productions of micro And small businessesin key sectors such as fashion, jewelry, glasses, food, furniture and metal products. In total, it is about 20.3 billion of exports in high crafts sectors.
These are the data by going in detail:
- 27.1 billion euros come from the Middle East;
- 21.9 billion from the countries bordering the area (Egypt, Libya, Türkiye);
- 6.6 billion from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus;
- 5.8 billion from India and Pakistan.
The risks for energy
The data that worries more concerns theenergy Since the 40.7% National Energy Import, which is equal to 27.6 billion euros, comes from 17 countries involved in conflicts or which are in any case at risk of instability. This is an addiction that exposes the Italian production system to extreme vulnerability in case of blocks or escalations.
The node of the Hormuz Strait
Particularly critical is the role of the Hormuz Strait, a strategic hub from which it passes about 30% of the oil transported by sea globally. From this channel in 2025 energy goods have passed for 9.6 billion euros, equal to 14.2% of the total Italian import. The main suppliers of Italy who use this step are:
- Saudi Arabia (3.5 billion between crude oil and refined);
- Iraq (2 billion);
- Qatar (2.5 billion gnl);
- United Arab Emirates (0.7 billion);
- Kuwait (0.6 billion).
But the concerns for the Strait of Hormuz are of a global scale: according to JP Morgan estimates, a direct attack on Iranian energy infrastructures or a temporary block of the strait could make the barrel price splash up to 120 dollars, with a domino effect on world inflation.
It should be remembered that from the Strait of Hormuz not only passes oil, but also gases and manufacture.
Italian export in war zones and areas at risk
The fact that the data updated to the first quarter 2025 already shows a certain general slowdown in Italian exports to risk areas, with a total flexion of -0.6%are concerned. The countries of North Africa and Caucasus is particularly affected or:
- Egypt, Libya and Türkiye -14.7%;
- Russia, Ukraine and Belarus -10.4%.
In contrast, however, the Middle East (+13.7%) and the India-Pakistan area (+6%). Export in particular:
- Kuwait: +154.2%;
- United Arab Emirates: +21.5%;
- Saudi Arabia: +10.1%.
Uncertainty also from the US duties
But in addition to the war zones, the uses of the uses are also insecurity several times waved as a threat and repeatedly retouched. At the moment, despite this uncertainty, the growth of Italian exports to the USA has been recorded.
The president of Confartigianato, Marco Granelli, launches the alarm: “Creating stability is essential for the Made in Italy holding”.
