TO March 2025 theexport Italian towards i Eu EU countries has returned to grow, both on a monthly basis and on an annual basis. But behind the encouraging data, distorting dynamic dynamic and signs of weakness on key markets are actually hidden.
The data released by Istat show the progress of commercial exchanges between Italy and non -EU countries in March 2025: the exports have increased +2.9% compared to February, while the imports they dropped by1.1%.
What drives export
On annual basewe talk about the +7.5% forexport and of the +8.7% forimport. The commercial surplus stands at 5.96 billion euros, in slight improvement compared to the same month of 2024.
The growth of exports is mainly passed down by
- capital goods ( +9.9% situation, +10.4% tendential);
- and from consumer goods not durable ( +1.7% situation, +20.7% trend).
Instead, exports
- of energy (-6.4% situation, -34.4% tendential);
- and durable consumer goods (-11.5% and -19.9%).
On the front importsthe monthly decline is entirely due to the contraction of the purchases of energy (-19.8%), while on an annual basis to tow are i durable consumer goods (+33.6%) e not durable (+32.4%).
First quarter 2025
In the comparison between the first quarter 2025 and the last of 2024, theexport grows by +4.8%, while theimport It marks an increase of +5.3%. The increase in exports is guided by:
- capital goods +7.9%;
- consumer goods not durable +7.2%;
- intermediate goods +4.5%.
The commercial balance remains positive (+11.2 billion), but decreasing compared to the 15.7 billion of the first quarter of 2024, a sign of a relative deterioration of the commercial balance, in particular in the energy sector.
Record export to the USA
Export to the United States marks an impressive tendential increase: +41.2%contributing decisively to the overall result. Follow Mercosur (+28.9%) and countries OPEC (+24.9%).
However, Istat explicitly reports that the data is strongly influenced by Exceptional sales of naval vehicles (commercial and cruise ships) right towards the USA. Without this effect lump sumthe monthly export would even be down by -1.6% and annual growth would be reduced to a modest +3%. This suggests that the positive performance of exports it is not structuralbut linked to isolated operations.
Trade with China and Türkiye in trouble
Then worry the drop in Italian exports to two crucial markets:
- China -8.5%;
- Türkiye -31.3%.
These data reflect commercial tensions, drop in internal demand and possible competitive difficulties. THE’import from China, however, grows by +44.9%a sign of growing dependence on chains of Asian value.
Mercosur on the rise
The remarkable increase in exchanges with the blockage stands out Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, etc.): +28.9% in the’export And +71.2% in the’import. Latin America is confirmed as a dynamic area for the exchange, probably driven by flows of raw materials, agricultural and semi -finished goods.
Consumer goods not durable
The non -durable consumer goods sector (food, pharmaceuticals, personal and home care products) shows a structural solidity both export and import side. The tendential growth exceeds +20% in both senses, confirming the centrality of these products in the post-pandic economy, with consumers attentive to quality and accessibility.
Energy
The energy deficit remains consistent (-3.86 billion), but slightly improvement compared to March 2024 (-3.98 billion). The drop in imports is partly linked to the price reductionin part to a minor needsbut the energy remains the weak point of the Italian commercial balance with non -EU countries.
Italy remains exhibited, on the energy front, a
- fluctuations of international prices;
- geopolitical risks.
- Industrial weaknesses related to production costs.
