The Italian GDP It is expected to grow of the 0.6% In 2025 and 0.8% in 2026, after increasing by 0.7% in previous two years. These are the numbers that Istat has released today, presenting the data on the perspectives for the Italian economy in 2025 -2026. The increase in GDP, in the two -year forecast, would arise entirely by the internal demand for stocks net (+0.8 and +0.9 percentage points respectively), while the net foreign demand would provide a negative contribution in both years (-0.2 and -0.1 pp). The balance of the commercial scale would also remain positive in the next two years.
Looking atabroadtakes into account an attenuation in the second part of 2025, given the climate of uncertainty of US commercial policy and a negative impact of duties on world trade.
Positive growth but consumer trust falls
In detail, the first quarter of 2025 saw the Italian GDP grow by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, thanks to the positive contribution of the internal and foreign demand. The gross fixed investments increased by 1.6%, resulting the most dynamic component, while the consumption of families grew by 0.2%. On the offer side:
- The industry showed good performance (+1.2%), in particular buildings (+1.4%);
- The services recorded a slight drop (-0.1%), driven by the strong expansion of artistic and entertainment activities (+2.3%) and the contraction of financial and insurance (-1.4%) and real estate (-0.9%).
However, in the first four months of 2025, the trust of consumers and companies worsened, thanks to the uncertainty linked to the imposition of new commercial duties. Export, however, benefited from an “advance effect”, growing by 2.8%.
Unc: “Consumption in the pole!”
The alarm bell, however, is on consumption of Italians, which are expected to continue to grow at moderate rhythms (+0.7% in both
years) on the one hand favored by the continuation of the growth of wages and employment, on the other hand braked by an increase in the propensity for savings. Massimiliano Dona, president of the National Consumer Union, commenting on Istat’s forecasts states that consumption is “at the pole”:
“Until the consumption of families, which represent 60% of GDP, will not start again, the country will continue to arrange and the growth of GDP will always be of zero point: +0.6% in 2025 and +0.8% in 2026. Bad data if we consider that we are also spending the money of the PNRR that are the driving force for investments. Wages and employment are not enough to give breath to those who struggle to get to the end of the month and have hunger paychecks.
In May 2025, harmonized inflation stood at 1.9%, decreasing compared to 2.0% in April, aligning the average of the euro area. A braking due to the reduction of energy prices, while the prices of food goods are growing (+0.8%).
The labor market grows, but employment expectations slow down
The data on the labor market is more positive. In the first quarter of 2025 the rate of vacant places decreased to 2.0%, down in industry but stable in services. In April, employment It remained stable, with a rate unchanged to 62.7%, while unemployment dropped to 5.9% (-0.2 percentage points). However, the inactive increases (+0.3%).
However, expectations on employment worsen, especially in the sectors such as:
- manufacturing;
- retail trade;
- constructions;
Improve exclusively in the service sector. Signals that highlight a phase of slowdown in the demand for work, especially in the production sectors, in the face of a greater estate in the tertiary sector.
