The Italian economy shows mixed signals in the third quarter of 2025: on the one hand, GDP is stationary, on the other, inflation slows down and employment continues to grow. This is what emerges from the latest economic report from Istat, which photographs an Italy in line with Germany for zero growth, but lagging behind France and Spain.
What is alarming, however, are the prices of food goods, which have seen a surge of 25% since 2021, driven above all between 2022 and 2023 by the “shock” on energy prices.
GDP is stable, but the picture is not homogeneous
The preliminary estimate of GDP for the third quarter marks an unchanged 0.0% compared to the previous three months. Domestic demand slowed, while the contribution of the net foreign component was positive. At a sectoral level, there is an increase in agriculture, a contraction in industry and substantial stationarity in services. However, the change acquired for the whole of 2025 stands at +0.5%.
October brought good news on the price front: the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) fell to 1.3% on a trend basis, a figure well below the euro area average (+2.1%) and a marked decline compared to the +1.8% of September. The “shopping cart” slows down (+2.3% from +3.1%), driven above all by the drop in the prices of unprocessed food and energy goods.
Focus on food prices: +24.9% in four years
A dedicated focus highlights that, from October 2021 to October 2025, food prices in Italy increased by 24.9%. An increase of almost 8 points higher than that of the general price index. The main cause is identified in the energy shock following the invasion of Ukraine, which hit a highly energy-intensive sector such as agriculture hard. In the last two years, growth has been very limited, also due to the recovery of the profit margins of agricultural businesses.
The inflation of obligatory expenses such as food exceeds the general index and food prices are now skyrocketing. This is the alarm raised by the National Consumers Union, which reports:
In October, while monthly inflation fell by 0.3%, Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 0.2%. On an annual basis, then, the increase was 2.7%, which translated into money means that a couple with 2 children pay 250 euros more on an annual basis to eat and drink, a couple with 1 child 219 euros, 173 for an average family.
Food price increases
Below, all the annual increases reported by the UNC:
| No | Product | Annual increases in October (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa and chocolate powder | 21.8 |
| 2 | Coffee | 21.1 |
| 3 | Chocolate | 10.2 |
| 4 | Non-alcoholic drinks | 8.7 |
| 5 | Beef | 7.9 |
| 6 | Other meat preparations | 7.8 |
| 7 | Egg | 7.2 |
| 8 | Cheese and dairy products | 6.8 |
| 9 | Butter | 6.7 |
| 10 | Dried fruit and nuts | 6.0 |
| 11 | Offal | 5.8 |
| 12 | Sheep and goat meat | 5.3 |
| 13 | Poultry | 5.3 |
| 14 | Stored milk | 5.0 |
| 15 | Ice creams | 5.0 |
| 16 | Rice | 4.6 |
| 17 | Pork meat | 4.5 |
| 18 | Other meats | 4.4 |
| 19 | Fruit preserves and fruit-based products | 4.4 |
| 20 | Fresh or chilled fish | 4.0 |
Assoutenti: “One in 3 families cuts back on food purchases”
The huge increases in the food sector not only impoverish families, but lead to profound changes in the habits of Italians, to the point that one in three families has been forced to cut spending on food and drink in the last year. Assoutenti states this, commenting on the Istat report according to which from October 2021 to October 2025, food goods recorded price increases of 24.9%. President Gabriele Melluso reports:
The constant growth of retail price lists in the food sector has led to a paradoxical situation: Italian families spend more and more for an increasingly emptier shopping cart. This is confirmed by the same Istat data: from October 2021 to today, food sales in our country have collapsed in volume by -8.8%, but in the same period the prices of food and drinks have risen by almost 25%.
