Collected the green disc of the Council of Ministers, the Public finance documentwhich replaced the Defstarts to land in Parliament. According to what has been leaked, the forecasts relating to the royal GDP indicate for 2025 a growth of 0.6%, increasing to 0.8% in 2026 and 2027 thanks to the push of consumption. Trend confirmed also in 2028.
But the document also processes 4 scenarios To simulate the impact on the GDP of the risks we have been experiencing in recent months:
- commercial war;
- changes in exchange rates;
- prices of increasing energy assets;
- changes in the conditions of the financial markets.
With duties, GDP increased only 0.5% in 2025
According to the document, the first hypothesized scenario provides for a weakening of the world trade Relevant for Italy, with a stiffening of the tensions between the different economic areas and which would thus lead to an tightening of the duties. In this context, as the DFP says:
In 2025 and 2026, a slowdown compared to the reference scenario of foreign demand weighed on the basis of exchanges with Italy, which would increase by 1.5% (instead of 2.0) 5 in 2025 and 1.4% (instead of 2.3%) in 2026, is hypothesized.
However:
Subsequently, the dynamics of world trade would regain vigor, with a growth rate of 3.5% in 2027 and 3.3% in 2028 (instead, respectively, by 2.7% and 2.8% proposed in the reference scenario).
In the annual report on the progress made in 2024 contained in the DFP, Minister Giorgetti notes that:
The changes in the geopolitical framework and the ads in the field of duties by the United States caused a high degree of uncertainty and a strong turbulence in the financial markets (…). It is not surprising that in Italy, a country with manufacturing and export -oriented vocation, the growth of the economy has undergone a slowdown already in the second half of last year.
CHANGE RATES FAVORABLE FOR THE EURO
A second scenario hypothesizes an evolution of exchange rates With an appreciation of the euro compared to the other currencies, higher than the provisions of the reference scenario. A factor that is partly taking place already now, with the dollar downhill, towards the devaluation, and the euro that is strengthened more and more.
In this context, in 2025 there would be a depreciation of the euro Compared to the more contained dollar than the basic scenario: -2.4% instead of -3.1%.
In 2026, on the contrary, the euro would appreciate -2.1% against a modest +0.2% foreseen in the reference scenario. Over the following years the euro would continue to appreciate compared to the dollar.
The increase in the prices of energy assets
In a further hypothesis, which considers a less favorable trend of the prices of energy assets, and in particular of oil, attributable to the persistence of tensions in the Middle East and unfavorable geo-strategic developments.
In this sense, the growth of GDP would be more contained than the basic scenario: -0.2 points in the 2026 And -0.1 points in the 2027. However, a subsequent and plausible return of energy prices to the levels provided in the reference scenario would favor a recovery of the growth rhythm of the GDP.
With the increasing spread you reach a -0.3%
Finally, the fourth scenario is based on the hypothesis of an increase in the performance of the Tenal BTP of 100 basic points Compared to the reference scenario, starting from the third quarter of 2025 and until the end of the simulation period.
A dynamic that would determine an expansion of the BTP-Bund spread and a worsening of the conditions of access to credit for families and businesses, with more expensive mortgages and loans. In this context, the growth of the GDP would be penalized: -0.3 percentage points in 2026, with a gap that would be expanded to -0.5 points and in addition to 2027.
