The great Italian banks (Intesa Sanpaolo, Unicredit, Banco BPM, Bper Banca And Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena) recorded a net aggregate profit of 7.6 billion euros in the second quarter of 2025, growing 15% on an annual basis and 12% on a quarterly basis. This was highlighted by a report by Morningstar DBRS, explaining that in the first half, the useful aggregate stood at 14.3 billion euros, growing by 13% on an annual basis or 16% on an annual basis excluding the non -recurring elements.
The average annualized ROE remained at a solid 16% in the first half of 2025, which also determined the improvement of profitability forecasts for the year for most banks.
“The Italian banks confirmed fundamental credits in the first half of 2025, as indicated also by the last stress test of the ABA, which saw the Banks of Southern Europe, including the Italian ones, among the best performances in the adverse scenario – said Andrea Costanzo, Vice President, European Financial Institution Rings at Morningstar DBRS – This allows Italian banks to maintain flexibility. strategic, while guaranteeing risks protection in the current macroeconomic context worsening, characterized by growing geopolitical and commercial tensions globally “.
The main voices of revenue
The aggregate interest margin decreased by 5% on an annual basis in the second quarter of 2025, but increased by 1% on a sequential basis compared to the previous quarter, since the greater volumes of loans, combined with the greater contribution of fixed income securities and the benefits deriving from the coverage, have more than compensated the negative impact of the lowest interest rates. In the first half of 2025, the interest margin decreased by 5% on an annual basis. According to Morningstar DBRS, the interest margin is likely to be reduced to an annual basis in 2025; However, the growth of loans and further benefits deriving from the coverage of interest rates should contribute to mitigating their impact.
In the second quarter of 2025, the net commissions increased by 3% on an annual basis; However, they decreased by 2% on a quarterly basis, mainly due to different holidays in the second quarter. In the first half, the net commissions increased by 6% on an annual basis. The banks have benefited from the important efforts made to diversify their business models towards activities that generate commissions, including asset management, banking and payment services. To this end, banks are also pursuing inorganic growth, such as the acquisition of Soul by Banco Bpm. “This performance becomes even more significant in the current context characterized by high volatility and uncertainty attributable to geopolitical tensions and global commercial war”, reads the report.
The health of the budgets
The rectifications on credits (LLP), always in the second quarter, increased by 1% on an annual basis and 17% compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to some non -recurring releases in the second quarter of 2024 and the seasonal effect in the second quarter of 2025, as well as the updates of the credit model to reflect the worsening of macroeconomic hypotheses. Nonetheless, the rectifications on credits for the first semester of 2025 decreased by 6% on an annual basis, due to the overall more solid risk profile of the banks. The banks have maintained most of their management plans in the event that unexpected risks deriving from global geopolitical and commercial tensions materialize.
The annualized medium cor was 28 basic points (BPS) in the first half of 2025, falling compared to the levels recorded in previous years. The banks include an increase in the cork between 30 and 40 BPS on average in 2025, since they remain cautious on the risks relating to the quality of the active ingredients due to the US duties.
At the end of June 2025, the aggregate stock of NPE was substantially unchanged compared to 2024, but it almost halved compared to 2020. The gross and average rationale NPE and averages stood at 2.7% respectively and 1.4% at the end of June 2025, decreasing compared to 2.9% and 1.5% at the end of June 2024, also favored by a certain expansion of the loan portfolio. The total average coverage of the NPE was equal to about 49% at the end of June 2025, unchanged compared to 2024.
Excess of capital
The capitalization remains solid, with an average CET1 Ratio of 15.7% at the end of June 2025, slightly decreasing compared to 15.8% at the end of 2024, since the generation of profits was more than absorbed by the increase in the remuneration of shareholders, by the impact of the adoption of the regulatory framework of Basel IV starting from 2025, by the increase in the volumes of loans and acquisitions. The average cet1 bearing above the minimum requirement stood on a solid level of 600 basis points at the end of June 2025.
“We provide that part of the capital with the capital will be absorbed, driven by profit minors not distributed due to the lowest interest rates and the greater remuneration of shareholders, as well as by the potential success of the acquisition banks still in progress – says Morningstar DBRS – since the Italian banking sector remains among the most fragmented sectors in Europe, further consolidations may occur, even for the medium -sized banks”.
