The reassuring sector continues to move in a complex context, marked by increasingly frequent catastrophic events and a progressive rebalancing market.
According to S&P Global Ratings, the main global operators maintain a patrimonial solidity that allows them to absorb severe stress scenarios, while slowing down the expansion in the business of natural catastrophes. Although the reinsurers continue to increase exposure to natural catastrophes, the rhythm of growth has attenuated and is now more aligned with general risk trends. In the two-year period 2025-2026, the rating agency was expected to be a moderate increase in exposure to the Property catastrophic risks. The relationship between exposure and regulated capital (CT) remains stable around 21% for the sample of the 19 main global players.
High losses, but resilient budgets
2024 recorded losses insured by natural catastrophes of 137 billion dollars, according to the Swiss Re Institute. While overcoming the historical average, the impact on the reinsurers was limited: the high attack points and the frequency of moderate loss events have in fact left much of the weight to primary insurers, mainly due to the repeated convective storms in the United States.
For the 19 monitored reinsurers, the catastrophic losses remained within the predetermined budgets, allowing to close the year with solid technical margins. Even after approximately 40 billion dollars of fires related to fires in California, 50% of the annual catastrophy budget still remains available.
Market perspectives and emerging risks
Despite the robust capital, the sector must face several challenges: inflation of claims, increase in requests in the casualty branch in the United States, growing climatic variability and volatility of financial markets. Furthermore, with the progressive softening of the tariff conditions, the appetite for the catastrophic risk appears destined to remain contained at least until 2026.
The current phase seems marked by a more disciplined approach: global reinsurers favor the defense of profitability compared to aggressive growth, balancing exposure to risks and returns to capital. The ability to preserve positive technical margins, even in the presence of climatic shocks and tariff pressures, confirms the centrality of the sector in supporting the overall resilience of the insurance market.
System holding capacity
According to S&P Global Ratings, the overall capitalization of the sector is able to resist global annual losses of over 300 billion dollars without going down below the confidence level of 99.99%. This figure highlights the residence of the sector, even in a context characterized by significant external pressures.
