The announcement of the President of the United States Donald Trump on the truce between Iran and the West has had immediate repercussions on international energy markets. On June 24, 2025, the price of natural gas opened strongly to the TTF bag of Amsterdam, the main European hub for the sale of methane. THE Futures On July 10.64%dropped, settling at 36.25 euros for Megawattora (MWH). A clear reduction, which reports the price of the gas near the minimum levels of 2024.
But will this drop really translates into a decrease in the costs of bills for light and gas for Italian families and businesses? To respond it is necessary to analyze several factors: from the functioning of the energy market to the weight of geopolitics, up to the seasonal dynamics and the tariff update mechanisms.
US-Iran respite: what changes
Natural gas is, by its nature, a highly sensitive commodity to geopolitical risk. Iran, although not a great exporter directed towards Europe, represents a strategic node in the global energy mapboth for its internal production and for the control of the Hormuz Strait, from which it passes about 20% of world oil and a significant share of liquefied natural gas (GNL).
The truce immediately generated a calm effect On markets, reducing the risk of interruptions in global energy flows and pushing operators to sell the speculative positions open in the previous days.
The price of the gas today
The current level of 33.91 euros/MWh It represents a marked improvement compared to the peaks reached during the 2022 energy crisis and part of 2023, when the prices had also exceeded 300 euros/MWH, in a context marked by the war in Ukraine, from penalties to Russia and from uncertainties on supplies.
However, we are still far from levels pre-apandemicwhen the gas cost permanently under 20 euros/MWh. This tells us that, albeit with positive signals, the market continues to bite a structural risk, linked to a still fragile geopolitical context and the growing European dependence on the GNL, often more expensive and subject to global dynamics.
The effect on bills: when and how much can you save?
To understand if and how much this drop will translate into lighter bills, it is necessary to distinguish between:
- protected market;
- Free market.
In Italy, for gas, rates are updated monthly by Arera (Energy Regulation Authority, Networks and Environment) on the basis of the average price of the previous month on the TTF market. A drop in late June could therefore reflect, at least in part, on the bills of July or August in market protected.
In the market free Much depends on the signed contract. If it is fixed, the consumer will not perceive changes. If instead it is a price indexedlinked to the TTF or PSV values (the Italian market), then the drop in prices could bring more immediate benefits, especially if the bearish trend should continue.
It should be emphasized, however, that the cost of energy in the bill does not depend only on the raw material. They also weigh system, transport, excise duties, VAT. Therefore, -10% on the price of the wholesale gas translates into a saving Very content For the final consumer, often in the order of -2% or -3% on the overall invoice.
In addition, we entered the summer months, and this has two important effects on the demand and, therefore, on prices.
Less boilers are turned on, less energy for heating is consumed, so the question falls naturally. However, heat waves can increase the electrical consumptionand in many countries (Italy included) electricity is still produced in part with gas plants.
This, in fact, means that the weather and climate change remain key variables also in determining the actual evolution of prices in the coming months.
