THE’Italy It is crossing a profound demographic transition that modifies the structure of the population and affects the national economy. The change concerns in particular the labor market, the gross domestic product and the public spending intended for pensions, Healthcare and long -term assistance. According to reports from theParliamentary Budget Office (UPB) During an audition to the parliamentary commission of inquiry, the reduction of the population of working age and the aging of the active population represent critical elements for the future growth of GDP. The projections indicate a weakening of potential growth due to the drop in investments related to the PNRR and the contraction of the employment contribution.
Work and pensions: current and future critical issues
The Italian pension system He will be subjected to strong pressures in the next 15 years. In the long term, the main challenge will be to guarantee adequate social security benefits in a context in which medium pensions will be reduced to income from work. Health expenditure and long -term assistance will also grow, but in a content, provided that the increase in life expectancy does not involve an increase in years lived in precarious health conditions. The employment rate in Italy has increased from 2004 to 2024, thanks above all to the participation of the band 50-64 years and women between 35 and 49 years old. The younger bands, however, have recorded a negative contribution.
Participation in work and inactive basin
Italy has a large number of inactive peopleover 12 million in 2024, of which two thirds are women. To contain the negative effects of the demographic transition, it is necessary to increase participation in labor market. Among the recommended measures are the improvement of education, professional redevelopment and strengthening of public services for children and the elderly, now often entrusted to families.
Further support can come from migratory balance which can help expand the active population. It is necessary to encourage the entry of qualified workers and create favorable conditions to retain young people in Italy. At the same time, the adoption of advanced technologies must be promoted and the growth of human capital with an environment that stimulates innovation must be favored.
The projections of the Parliamentary Budget Office show that, even with the increase in the expenses related to aging until 2040, the sustainability of public accounts can be maintained. However, budget programming must take into account these dynamics to guarantee the reduction public debt.
Alternative scenarios and policies to be implemented
The AWG 2024 report provides for a decrease in pension expenditure compared to GDP until 2070, but a slight increase in health expenditure and for long-term care. Have been developed Alternative scenarios Based on variables such as migratory flows, retirement age and increase in health expenditure and all involve a slowdown in the descent of the deficit under 3% of the GDP and a worsening of the debt/GDP ratio. In the worst scenario, with freezing of the retirement age, the debt in 2041 could reach 139% of GDP.
To deal with the demographic transition it is necessary to maintain the automatic adjustment of theretirement to life expectancy. Are requested Longer work careers and well paid to guarantee adequate pensions. At the same time, the management of the National Health Service must be improved and enhance long -term assistance by moving resources from monetary transfers to services.
Another aspect to improve concerns the overcoming of territorial inequalities in accessing services and collect integrated data to monitor health and welfare needs. The budget consolidation, part of the new European rules, will have to explicitly consider the impact of aging on public spending. According to the report, it is essential to plan in advance, with structured interventions, to deal with the demographic transition effectively and sustainablely.
