From 1 January 2026 smoking will cost more. This is one of the certainties that emerge from the new maneuver of the Meloni Government.
The increase in excise duties on tobacco, which will translate into inevitable progressive increases in the retail sale of cigarettes, cigars and other smoking products, will be one of the pillars with which the executive aims to guarantee additional coverage and respect the constraints of the new European Stability Pact.
Excise duties on tobacco, towards gradual increases
By 2028, according to estimates contained in the Draft Budgetary Plan sent to Brussels, the cost of a pack of cigarettes could increase by up to 1.5 euros compared to current levels.
The plan provides for a three-year update of the tobacco tax calendar. From 2026 the increases will start with a few cents per package, and then grow in 2027 and 2028 to a significant cumulative effect.
The measure will affect all types of smoking products: traditional cigarettes, shredded cigarettes and to a lesser extent electronic cigarettes and vaping liquids. According to the Mef simulations, the additional revenue linked to the tobacco sector should be around 200 million euros per year, a relatively modest figure but still useful to balance the other measures of the Budget law.
How the price of cigarettes is formed in Italy
Today over two thirds of the final price of a package ends up in the state coffers. The structure is complex: for every 1,000 cigarettes there is a fixed excise duty of 29.5 euros, plus a proportional share of 49.5% on the sales price. Added to this is VAT (22%) and the retailer’s margin, which is worth 10% of the final price. With the new increase, the tax share will become even more significant, bringing the overall incidence to over 70% of the consumer price.
Giorgetti confirms the increase in cigarettes
“Cigarettes, slightly but yes, are increasing”, confirmed the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti during the press conference following the approval of the 2026 Budget Law.
The increases will be gradual and sustainable and the objective is to ensure a balance between budgetary needs and coherence with health policies. The Meloni Government, in practice, has dusted off a great classic: that of penalizing consumption that is harmful to health.
2026 maneuver between cuts and new entries
The tobacco chapter is part of a broader strategy: the 2026 Budget Law is worth around 17.5 billion euros, financed partly by cuts to ministries (8 billion in three years) and partly by new revenues. These, in addition to the increase in cigarettes, include the crackdown on tax evasion and collection, and a series of one-off measures.
How many Italians smoke
According to the latest available data (Istituto Superiore di Sanità, 2022), in Italy approximately one in four adults smokes. Among men the prevalence is 28.3%, among women 20%. The habit of smoking is more widespread among economically fragile groups: over 35% of citizens with economic difficulties declare they smoke, compared to 20% among those without income problems. The data among young people is also worrying: 27.7% of children between 18 and 24 years old and 28% between 25 and 34 years old smoke.
