European stock markets closed today’s session slightly higher, on a day without any great ideas thanks to yesterday’s closure of Wall Street for the Thanksgiving holiday and today’s short session in New York for Black Friday. Luxury shined in Milan after JPMorgan analysts improved their recommendation and target prices on various stocks, speaking of 2026 as “a year of stabilization” and predicting a return to growth thanks to improved consumer confidence in China, more stable margins and the launch of new products. MPS is still in the red, after the CEO Luigi Lovaglio received a warning from the Milan Prosecutor’s Office with the hypothesis of crimes of obstruction of the supervisory functions and market manipulation regarding the operation on Mediobanca.
The main price lists
Among the European stock markets, a small step forward for Frankfurt, which shows a progress of 0.29%, made up of London, which grows by a modest +0.27%, and a modest performance for Paris, which shows a moderate increase of 0.29%.
Slightly rising session for Piazza Affari, with the FTSE MIB, ending at 43,357 points, continuing the bullish trail highlighted by four consecutive gains, triggered last Tuesday; along the same lines, a small leap forward for the FTSE Italia All-Share, which reaches 46,017 points. The FTSE Italia Mid Cap was slightly positive (+0.38%); with a similar direction, the FTSE Italia Star showed fractional progress (+0.39%).
The headlines on Piazza Affari
At the top of the ranking of the most important stocks in Milan, we find Stellantis (+1.99%), Brunello Cucinelli (+1.75%), Moncler (+1.57%) and Leonardo (+1.56%). The strongest declines, however, occurred on Banca MPS, which closed the session at -2.12%. Sales on Telecom Italia, which recorded a decline of 1.80%. Modest decline for Buzzi, which drops a small -1.12%. Amplifon thoughtful, with a fractional drop of 0.71%.
Among the protagonists of the FTSE MidCap, Comer Industries (+4.66%), Technoprobe (+3.52%), Caltagirone SpA (+3.22%) and LU-VE Group (+2.71%). The strongest sales, however, hit Moltiply Group, which ended trading at -1.99%. Fincantieri hesitates, with a modest decline of 1.45%. Slow day for Juventus, which recorded a drop of 1.02%. Small loss for Ascopiave, which trades at -0.76%.
Macro data
The data published today for the Eurozone countries offer mixed signals, with the ECB’s inflation expectations remaining around 2.8% (against the 2.6 expected over the one-year horizon). In terms of monetary policy expectations, the probability of a rate cut at the Fed’s December 10 meeting continues to increase.
In Italy, the final GDP of the 3rd quarter led to an upward revision of the economic growth to +0.1% (from 0% in the second estimate): private consumption (+0.1%), public spending (+0.2%), investments (+0.6%) and exports (+2.6%) compensated for the decline in inventories and valuables. In November, harmonized flash inflation showed an increase of +1.1% y/y, against +1.3% expected and previously, with the slowdown being led by services (+2.5% from +2.9%).
In Germany, where retail sales fell -0.3% m/m in October, the November unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3%. Instead, harmonized German inflation rose in November, according to the first estimate, to +2.6% y/y from +2.3% previously (against expectations of a marginal increase to +2.4%).
The OPEC+ meeting
OPEC+ is unlikely to change production levels at its (online) meeting on Sunday, shifting attention to the more contentious task of setting baseline production levels that will guide policy from 2027. The recent debate highlights lingering tensions between members with limited spare production capacity, such as Nigeria, and producers such as the United Arab Emirates who can pump more. Having suspended further production increases for the first quarter of 2026, OPEC+’s willingness to impose new restrictions could be tested later in 2026, against a backdrop of signs of growing global surpluses and persistent downward pressure on crude prices.
The wait for the Fed
The Fed will have to make its next interest rate decision – the meeting is scheduled for December 9-10 – based on scant data due to the prolonged shutdown, even as the market sees a more than 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. Employment and inflation data for October-November and GDP growth for the third quarter will not be released before the Fed meeting. The Fed’s so-called blackout period begins tomorrow, Saturday, but before the interest rate decision, the November ISM manufacturing and services indices, ADP private sector employment, the latest statistics on layoffs and consumer confidence, and September private consumption and job vacancies will also be released.
