A “light” maneuver for families and businesses, with a scheduled talent of about 16 billion and a military expenditure of +12 billion in the next three years. These are the data that emerge from the public finance programmatic document, fired last Thursday evening in the Council of Ministers. From the DPFP emerges an important turn towards an increase in military expenditure, which, as from promises made to Trump and NATO, will pass from the current 2% of GDP (about 45 billion euros per year) to 2.5% of GDP in 2028 (therefore 61 billion euros per year).
Numbers that, if compared to spending for families and businesses, bring back to the issue of the insestability of the promise made. However, they are still all numbers to be confirmed: by 15 October the text must be sent to Brussels and then, on 20, it will arrive in Parliament.
Military maneuver: how much Italy will spend in defense
The text approved on Thursday 2 October by the Council of Ministers, or the programmatic document of public finance (DPFP), provides for an increase in defense expenses. The size of the increase is estimated, provided that Italy manages to get out of the procedure for excessive deficit imposed by the EU, within these terms:
- 0.15% of GDP in 2026;
- 0.3% of GDP in 2027;
- 0.5% of GDP in 2028.
Calculations in hand, there are those who speak of around 12 billion euros more for military expenses in the three-year period 2026-2028. It would start from 3.3 billion (0.15% of GDP) for 2026, for a total of 11-12 billion, but only if Italy will come out of the European infringement procedure (therefore if it manages to drop below 3% deficit).
The percentages emerge from the document, but once again it is not clear where the funds necessary for the increase will be taken. How the expenses will be covered and what will be the impact on the other voices of the maneuver is not yet clear. In any case, military spending have a priority position with respect to other needs.
Just compare the hypothesis of increasing military spending through an automatic mechanism, subjected only to the obstacle of the infringement procedure, compared to the promises of reduction of the tax burden on income from work, without figures and timing, or the refinancing of the National Health Fund, which is described as a “adjustment to contain the impact of inflation” and prevent the collapse of the system, and not as a structural investment.
Where will resources come from?
The 12 billion euros on the defense are conditioned to the escape from the procedure for excessive deficit, and Italy is on the right way. Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has announced that from next spring the output process could start 12 months in advance of the hypothesis of a year ago.
With the indicator always below 3% in the coming years, the free resources will allow to adapt to the promise made in the NATO. All in a context of prudence, as the Minister of Economy confirmed. Giorgetti in fact said:
We confirm the line of firm and prudent responsibility that takes into account the need for the estate of public finance in compliance with the new European rules, but in the framework of the essential measures in favor of the economic and social growth of workers, families and businesses.
