A contrasting week ends for stocks in the real estate sector, listed on Piazza Affari and in Europe. Investors’ attention has turned to the quarterly reporting season which has come into full swing from one side of the Atlantic to the other, while geopolitical and commercial tensions remain in the background, following the new threats of restrictions on software exports to China made by the American President, Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the shutdown continues in the United States, i.e. the blocking of administrative activities, which leaves investors in the dark about the country’s economic scenario while they think about the next monetary policy moves of the Federal Reserve, without some macroeconomic indications, which will meet next week. Meetings of the ECB and the Bank of Japan are also scheduled for the eighth. Inflation accelerated in Japan in September for the first time in four months. The price trend will be one of the main elements at the center of the BoJ’s two-day meeting, with the board called to decide on rates which will also publish the new quarterly forecasts on growth and inflation.
Divergent central banks
As mentioned, the two central banks will be the absolute protagonists of next week. The first to start is the Fed, with the two-day FOMC scheduled for 28-29 October, the second is the ECB with the governing council which will meet on 30 October away in Florence. The monetary policies of the two central institutions travel on different tracks: the bank led by Jerome Powell seems ready to announce a new cut in the cost of money, the second of the year, after that of September, while for the Frankfurt bank expectations are for rates that are still on hold.
The performance of the sector on the stock exchange
The real estate sector in the Milanese market closed eighth below parity with the FTSE Italia All Share Real Estate index losing 2.4%. However, the sector performed well at a European level, with the Stoxx 600 Real Estate index gaining 0.4%.
Real estate securities listed in Milan
Among the real estate companies listed on Piazza Affari, Next Re is the worst and slipped by 4.5%. Brioschi is down 3%, while Gabetti and Risanamento lose around 2%. IGD is also down with -2%. Abitare IN limits the drop to 0.4%.
Macroeconomic data
Mortgage applications continue to decline in the United States. In the week to 17 October, the index measuring the volume of mortgage loan applications recorded a decrease of 0.3%, after the -1.8% recorded the previous week. The index relating to refinancing requests rose by 3.99%, while that relating to new applications decreased by 0.3%. The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA), indicated that 30-year mortgage rates fell to 6.37% from 6.42% previously.
Positive signs are coming from the US real estate market. Existing home sales in the United States increased 1.5% month-on-month in September. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 4.06 million homes were sold, in line with expectations, compared to 4.00 million in August. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased 4.1%.
Sector studies
In the first 9 months of the year, the trend in demand for mortgages from Italian families underwent strong growth, with the number of queries marking a +16.4%. In the single month of September, demand recorded a +7.6% and the maximum peak was recorded in January with almost +27% (Source: the EURISC Credit Information System). This is what emerges from the CRIF Barometer. To analyze the data in its entirety, we observe that in the first half of the year the subrogation phenomenon recorded a +46.2%, and new mortgages granted grew in double figures, with a +16.2%. In the third quarter of 2025, the average amount requested increased by 4.3%, with a total value of 152,720 euros; we also recorded the same trend in the single month of September with a +6.1% and a value of 156,353 euros. As regards the distribution by amount range, in the first nine months of 2025 mortgage requests for amounts between 100,000 and 150,000 euros still remain the solution preferred by Italian families (31.0% of the total) followed by the subsequent one 150,001-300,000 (30.6%). If we analyze the age range, however, it emerges that applicants between 25 and 44 years old are 63% of the total, while 31.5% are made up of 45-64 year olds. Finally, almost one mortgage in two has a repayment plan of more than 25 years, it follows that the preferred choice for families remains that of financing deferred over time so as not to burden the family budget; even more so in times where inflation pushes up the cost of living.
